I can see Miami Dade flipping but who are the voters that would even make that happen? Aren't Republicans maxed out with Cubans there or do they still have room to go with them and Puerto Ricans etc??
I think it's more likely Biden narrowly wins Miami-Dade than Trump does. There would probably need to be some sort of huge turnout differential between post-pandemic transplants and "locals", as well as post-2010 non-Cuban Latin American immigrants being anomalously R like post-2010 Cuban immigrants are.
So far the GOP has been making as much progress with non-Cubans as Cubans. Despite recent South American immigrants being relatively richer and educated, Doral (South American) and Hialeah (less affluent Cuban) have been moving about the same. The more affluent Cuban areas have had more muted swings. I think it's fairly safe to assume that both Doral and Hialeah swing right again.
The issue for Dems in Miami-Dade is that the Jewish and Black populations have been shrinking and swinging right. As a percentage of the population, their decline is being replaced by new Latin American immigrants that seem to be keyed into low-fidelity media that often push right wing ideas.
Miami-Dade will probably continue swinging right as a result of this. Post-Covid immigration has been massive and not many are eligible to vote. Once they are, early signs suggest that they will vote strongly GOP.
Dems could completely fall off a cliff in South Florida after Trump is around if they nominate a far left candidate. Miami already has a large Orthodox Jewish population but a Dem in 8 years or so could get a massive swing among secular Jews if the left keeps racing toward Hamas.
