Could the far left's influence lead to a Republican supermajority?

[Devils30]

While everyone is focused on the protests and extremism of the progressive wing, has it occurred to anyone how electorally inefficient progressives' coalition is already. Biden won 25 states and 31 of 50 states were more Republican than the nation as a whole. If the GOP wins the popular vote by 5%, it would win 34 states under 2020 lines--> that is 68 Senators!

Of course individual Senate candidates (as we learned in 2022) matter and the GOP is unlikely to get this high but Dems are already at a considerable structural disadvantage. Becoming an AOC party is likely going to lead to additional defections among Jews, Asians, 1/2 of Hispanics and even 20% of blacks.

Even a 5% GOP popular majority can lead to catastrophic outcome for Dems and that doesn't include problems in NY/NJ/CT due to losses among Jewish voters and moderates. The party can not win with just blacks and angry white atheists. Look at the Bernie/Warren 2020 primary vote, that coalition is so damn inefficient even compared to Biden's general election coalition.

[Devils30]

Hmmm... in the medium-long rung, I do think there's a very plausible scenario where the Dem base fractures like they did in the 1920's or 1890's with some strong protest-oriented left wing independent performances and then there's a Republican lock on federal politics for 10-20 years because of this.   

However, if you mean in 2024, that would be pretty darn hard.  First of all, Dems held together enough to nominate Biden for one more cycle without major controversy.  They would have to flip a senate seat in one of NM/VA and sweep everything that voted right of them in 2020 for a supermajority.  That includes places like Minnesota that are really Dem downballot.

TBH it also feels like a long term Republican senate supermajority has been "one election away" since like 2012 now.  Dems always find a way to do just well enough to shut it down.  Perhaps this is the nature of campaigning when you know which states are going to be decisive.  In any event, Dems not getting blown out in 2022 was potentially a historically big deal because it made a double digit Biden 2020 state R seat #60 going into 2024 when it could have easily been a Biden by 1ish/Trump 2016 state as seat #60 if D's lost a few seats in 2022. 

I don't mean a supermajority in 2024, can't really see the GOP getting above 55 Senate seats and even then its a stretch. Anything over 52-48 GOP is tough with Dems having either strong incumbents or weak GOP challengers in AZ, PA, WI etc.

In theory there is the potential for a quick bounce back among Dems if Trump wins in 2026 but I am not so sure it happens. If Biden loses with inflation below 4% and a growing economy, it may be a sign that the Dems coalition is the problem. A lot of their staffers and academic supporters genuinely want the party to become the garbage that the Labor party became from 2010 until now in Britain. And the economic policies of blue state elites regarding housing (see CA, NY, NJ, MA, CT) are getting increased scrutiny from those in the middle. The Dems might not be a winning party again until the problem politicians like Elizabeth Warren are out of the picture.

[Devils30]

In theory there is the potential for a quick bounce back among Dems if Trump wins in 2026 but I am not so sure it happens. If Biden loses with inflation below 4% and a growing economy, it may be a sign that the Dems coalition is the problem.

I don't think it has anything to do with AOC or Warren types specifically; there are bigger structural issues at hand that affect the median voter more acutely. Right now there are legitimate issues with how the unemployment rate and job growth numbers are being reported. (Video is from April 2024)

If anything, the real issue with the D coalition has to do with how inherently unsustainable a liberaltarian coalition of disproportionately college(+)-educated PMC voters and lower-income urban voters is if literally everyone else realigns towards the opposite side.

The Democrats are going to come to crossroads and will have to make a decision on which way to go. Right now, their current coalition cannot stand because so many of their various voting blocks have interests diametrically opposed to each other. We are already seeing the fissures with these campus protests.

Put it bluntly, you cannot be a party that appeals to both upper class suburbanites and young leftists & minorities. It's basically the bourgeoise and the proletariate in the same party which is laughable and no one with common sense thinks that can possibly stand.

Of course you can never be the problem, it is never because you and Dem staffers/donors are to the left of 96% of the country. The open border is completely a result of these people who have run roughshod over an 82 year old President. His staff is a major problem.

[Devils30]

Hmmm... in the medium-long rung, I do think there's a very plausible scenario where the Dem base fractures like they did in the 1920's or 1890's with some strong protest-oriented left wing independent performances and then there's a Republican lock on federal politics for 10-20 years because of this.   

However, if you mean in 2024, that would be pretty darn hard.  First of all, Dems held together enough to nominate Biden for one more cycle without major controversy.  They would have to flip a senate seat in one of NM/VA and sweep everything that voted right of them in 2020 for a supermajority.  That includes places like Minnesota that are really Dem downballot.

TBH it also feels like a long term Republican senate supermajority has been "one election away" since like 2012 now.  Dems always find a way to do just well enough to shut it down.  Perhaps this is the nature of campaigning when you know which states are going to be decisive.  In any event, Dems not getting blown out in 2022 was potentially a historically big deal because it made a double digit Biden 2020 state R seat #60 going into 2024 when it could have easily been a Biden by 1ish/Trump 2016 state as seat #60 if D's lost a few seats in 2022. 

I don't mean a supermajority in 2024, can't really see the GOP getting above 55 Senate seats and even then its a stretch. Anything over 52-48 GOP is tough with Dems having either strong incumbents or weak GOP challengers in AZ, PA, WI etc.

In theory there is the potential for a quick bounce back among Dems if Trump wins in 2026 but I am not so sure it happens. If Biden loses with inflation below 4% and a growing economy, it may be a sign that the Dems coalition is the problem. A lot of their staffers and academic supporters genuinely want the party to become the garbage that the Labor party became from 2010 until now in Britain. And the economic policies of blue state elites regarding housing (see CA, NY, NJ, MA, CT) are getting increased scrutiny from those in the middle. The Dems might not be a winning party again until the problem politicians like Elizabeth Warren are out of the picture.

I mean, let's not act like there aren't just as many fissures within the Republican Party even right now. The rhetoric and demand for fealty covers some of those currently. But...the thing about being a one-man show that sucks up all the oxygen in the room means there's going to be a serious vacuum of power within the party that is going to result in a very contentious and fractious fight for control once Trump is gone.

Yep, my point is that either the Dems this year or 2028 or the GOP in 2028 are likely to break and by the 2030s the stalemate might end and one side will have a clear majority for a bit.