NH Sen - University of New Hampshire - Hassan+2 (user search)
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  NH Sen - University of New Hampshire - Hassan+2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NH Sen - University of New Hampshire - Hassan+2  (Read 812 times)
Devils30
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,043
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« on: November 06, 2022, 08:20:13 PM »

There is little crossover from 2020 Biden, 2020 Trump supporters, perhaps the sample is a bit too red? The toplines say 52-45 Biden but the sample has 1024 Biden, 968 Trump would be about a Biden +2 sample.
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Devils30
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,043
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2022, 11:48:13 PM »

There is little crossover from 2020 Biden, 2020 Trump supporters, perhaps the sample is a bit too red? The toplines say 52-45 Biden but the sample has 1024 Biden, 968 Trump would be about a Biden +2 sample.

From what I can tell, it looks like their RV sample was Biden +7, but their LV sample cuts out more Biden voters than Trump voters. Goes to Biden +3 (rounded)

Curious what the RV result was then.

RV:
2020 Biden - 1,168 (52%)
2020 Trump - 1,005 (45%)

LV:
2020 Biden - 1,024 (51%)
2020 Trump - 968 (49%)

That's a big mistake as NH is a completely white state, meaning white college will be a higher % in a midterm. This state really does not have the type of demographics Dems struggle with.
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