I think focusing on the relative partisan turnout is the wrong thing, if you look at the 2018 midterms, the house vote adjusted for uncontested seats was D+7, Clinton won by D+2, a shift of 5%, the whole change was basically independents who were 30% of voters going from R+4 to D+12.
In Nevada, Biden won mainly because he won independents by 6%, if they vote Republican by say 5%, and partisan turnout is what it was in the 2020 exit polls, Republicans will win statewide. This is why comparisons to 2020 are flawed, even if Dems got close to 2020 numbers in the Clark early vote lead, they would still lose the state.
This is also true in other states, because independents are voting much more Republican this year then 2020, just matching 2020 relative partisan turnout is not enough, Dems need to do better, my own view is Dems won't even match 2020 and the electorate itself will be more Republican, maybe a R+1 or R+2 electorate in party ID and independents will vote Republican by large margins.
It is weird how the mail slowed down this week, I would be weary of drawing conclusions because it usually increases right before e-day.
And indies are still a wildcard, it is entirely possible Laxalt will only win this group by 0-4% and narrowly come up short. Indies under 45 in NV might not be a terrible group for Dems.
