Marquette: Johnson +6

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1580257569188171776?cxt=HHwWgMCqkd_4me4rAAAA

LV: Johnson 52-46
RV: Tied 47-47

[Devils30]

Mandela is a crappy candidate, no doubt Johnson is 75% likely to win. That said, there is no chance WI has a R+6 likely to registered voter gap after what we saw in these special elections, the fact midterms have a more educated electorate. In a state as white as Wisconsin, this should arguably help Dems the most.

[Devils30]

Dems should consider loading up $$$ in North Carolina instead of here. The final margin won't be 6 but Barnes is probably not winning this thing either.

[Devils30]

Between this, seats like OR-5, OR-6, you gotta give a lot of blame to Warren's network of sh**tty candidates she endorses early.

[Devils30]

But on a night where they lose WI by 1.5 with a bad candidate? Never know.

NC you always have that possibility of white rural turnout stagnating, black voters giving Beasley a higher margin (look at GA 2020 runoff) and higher Dem margins around the Triangle.

WI trends give GOP plenty of room to grow in the western part of the state.

[Devils30]

There is no way to reconcile stuff like the LV/RV difference here and say Dems won NY-19 because of higher propensity voters only.

Johnson is favored but pollsters really seem to be struggling badly in deciding what the electorate will look like.

[Devils30]

Let’s be honest. The attack ads worked against Barnes is because he took ridiculously far left positions in 2018-20. The DSCC never should have let this guy get the nomination.

There’s a reason Warnock, Kelly, CCM,Beasley, Ryan haven’t seen their standing fall much if at all over the past 6 weeks. It’s because none of them wanted to defund the police or abolish ICE.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1580259776264802305

Yeah the Johnson +6 is the almost certain to vote. I would probably go with the very likely to vote Johnson +2