2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Devils30]

The map was an R map back in 2011 but I think Dems push for a minimal change map now. They may try to add a town or two to NJ-7 to help Malinowski but this district is trending Dem anyway. If Rs don't win it in 2022 they might be done there.

[Devils30]

Dems shouldn't agree to anything less than 10-2, they need as many seats as possible in NJ, MI, PA, CO, VA with commissions. One thing about a northwest NJ red district is that Sussex, Warren are small counties population wise and Hunterdon, Morris are trending Dem and a bad fit for a southern evangelical GOP. Someone like Zwicker might be able to win NJ-7 if Malinowski didn't run again, the GOP's once deep bench is on the decline.

NJ Sup. Ct is going to be 4-3 Dem by September. There is no incentive for Dems to throw Malinowski's seat away when the tiebreaker might in fact actually let them add towns like Plainfield, Princeton to NJ-7.

[Devils30]

Dems should not hesitate to let the court pick the tiebreaker, it will very well make Malinowski safer and if lucky enough, give Van Drew a tougher district while making Kim safer.

[Devils30]

The state Supreme Court is picking the tiebreaker and court is currently 3-3-1.

[Devils30]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

If the Dems win the tiebreaker with the Supreme Court it's easy to see Sherrill taking in parts of NJ-8,9 and Gottheimer losing Warren county, maybe part of Sussex. But the new NJ-7 could take Warren, Hunterdon and ditch swingy parts of Morris, north Somerset and take in Mercer, part of Middlesex and become a Biden +18 seat.

Another way Dems could get a 10-2 is packing NJ-7 in NW NJ but making NJ-4 an ultra red Ocean/Monmouth based seat and giving Trenton to Kim in NJ-3. Cracking Camden county could also screw Van Drew.

[Devils30]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

Any chance that Dems could get Kean’s vote for a 9-3 map that turns NJ-07 into a tailor made Trump district for him?

If the court picks the Dem as tiebreaker the Dems aren't giving up anything. I would expect 5,11 to get a few points bluer and 7 to get towns on the edges to make it Biden +15 or so. I think the Dems would have agreed on a tiebreaker if they wanted to trade 5,11,3 for 7 but are hoping they can keep all 4.

[Devils30]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

Any chance that Dems could get Kean’s vote for a 9-3 map that turns NJ-07 into a tailor made Trump district for him?

If the court picks the Dem as tiebreaker the Dems aren't giving up anything. I would expect 5,11 to get a few points bluer and 7 to get towns on the edges to make it Biden +15 or so. I think the Dems would have agreed on a tiebreaker if they wanted to trade 5,11,3 for 7 but are hoping they can keep all 4.

This is mostly likely the reason for sending it to the State Supreme Court.   Probably the only thing either party really cares about is the Congressional map for obvious reasons.  

The NJ Dems probably want to at least try to get everything and if they lose they really don't lose all that much anyway.

The two outcomes I see are 9-3 or 10-2.   8-3-1 would be best case scenario for Republicans, but probably isn't happening.

I would not be shocked if Dems have good luck with court decisions because these judges know the chances of another 1/6 increases if the GOP runs Congress.

Doubt it happens but wonder if Dems could do a 10-1-1 map if they had tiebreaker and packed NJ-4. Maybe they could swap some precincts in NJ-1 and 2 to turn Van Drew into a 51-47 Biden seat or something while giving Trenton to Kim.

[Devils30]

Boom!

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1423753995403804680?s=20

Interestingly this happened even though one of the Democrats recused herself (because she was once a clerk for Wallace), so at least one Republican must have voted for Wallace as well. (The NJ Supreme Court is split 3D-3R-1I.)

Wallace has very strong ties to the South Jersey Democratic machine so do expect there to be focus on ensuring at least two districts for the Democrats in South Jersey.

I expect a 10-2 map now, Dems have no reason to compromise and throw Malinowski under the bus when they can add a few towns to NJ-7 and make it around Biden +16.

I expect 5,11 to get bluer and they will take in parts of Essex, Bergen currently held by Pascrell and Payne.

3 should become a Biden district, maybe it gets Trenton or runs up into Middlesex.

Question is how the Dems do 10-2, perhaps they would make NJ-7 a red vote sink in exchange for giving Van Drew part of NJ-1 and turning it into a Biden +7 seat or so. Would say NJ-7 getting the Plainfields, Princeton and towns in northern Mercer is more likely scenario (or Wasserman's NJ-12 with Hunterdon, Warren and Mercer/Middlesex.)

[Devils30]

I would still try for a 10-2, it will give Dems the best chance in an environment where they can win the House (either a crazy 2022 change or 2024-26-28-30). But it does make the idea of screwing Van Drew go down the drain, just make NJ-2 a red vote sink.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1456643016668684289

[Devils30]

The tiebreaker is very Dem friendly. You can draw a 10-2 with all seats Biden +12 or more quite easily. I would not give up on a D trending area like NJ-7.

[Devils30]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

If Dems draw a 9-3 map in NJ those districts are going to be like Biden+15 at minimum (around there).

If Republicans are flipping seats like that they're winning like 230+ seats nationally so it's almost a moot point.

Nothing in a 9-3 NJ map is going to be R's 218th seat.

Obviously none of the more marginal D seats in a 9-3 would be the 218th seat, but they might be seats 235-250, definite possibilities in 2022.

Incumbency isn't a huge advantage anymore, but NJ Republicans are moderate, can reflect their districts well, and build popularity. Once they get in, they might be hard to get out. Frelinghuysen and MacArthur might still be there if they didn't retire, for example, despite Biden winning their districts.

My point is that even though none of these seats would decide the balance of power in the House in 2022, it would be unwise to let moderate Rs become established in those districts, because in 2024 perhaps they could outperform the top of the ticket and potentially decide the House.

I mean...sure...but what's the point?   Texas R's can't draw every incumbent a Trump+25 seat or something, so they settle for what they can.   Same goes for NJ.

You can't draw solid D/R seats everywhere for every incumbent and make sure it's "SAFE NO MATTER WHAT!!".  They can't prepare for utter catastrophes.

Also, you say incumbency doesn't matter as much anymore and then go on to explain how the new R's could become entrenched incumbents....?

I don't know if this is a pattern that would hold into the future, but NJ House Republicans had huge overperformances. Like Katko-esque. Incumbency isn't some gigantic boost anymore, but I'm just saying drawing a Biden +8 district in Morris or something might lead to a flip in 2022 and then make it very difficult to dislodge the incumbent. But if the seat didn't flip in the first place this wouldn't have been a problem.

Yep, but Dems should want the type of map they they can do the best in with a 2012 type of election (even popular vote in the House). I would try to go 10-2 by unpacking the 12th and putting Warren, Hunterdon with Mercer and part of Middlesex. Then try to move 7 a bit east (while being Somerset centric, part of southern Morris). Somerset is no longer a swing county in an even year.

[Devils30]

It won't be 10-2 in a year like 2021 but that isn't the point. Dems need as many winnable seats as possible in a D+0 type of election.

NJ-7 also barely swung at all from 2017-21 while the rest of the state swung sharply right. Not sure Malinowski is the one to throw under.

[Devils30]

It won't be 10-2 in a year like 2021 but that isn't the point. Dems need as many winnable seats as possible in a D+0 type of election.

NJ-7 also barely swung at all from 2017-21 while the rest of the state swung sharply right. Not sure Malinowski is the one to throw under.

There are a lot of factors working against Malinowski. He was the worst performing of the four swing district Dems in the state, even though his district was Biden’s best of the four. His opponent is the outgoing Senate Minority Leader who’s a household name in his state and sits in a very Democratic State Senate district. He lives in a very Republican part of his district, which is not the case for the other Democrats in the delegation. And, he is being investigated for ethic issues.

Bingo, Malinowski is easily the most toxic out of Sherrill, Kim, and even Gottheimer. Although Gottheimer may be the slimiest.

Malinowski is the worst of the group but there is a way to keep 10-2 and basically get him out anyway. If you add Hunterdon to NJ-12 he can choose a primary with a more liberal Dem or risk losing a more Union/Somerset and western Essex based NJ-7 primary. Best case for Dems is putting Hunterdon and Warren with Mercer/Middlesex in a blue leaning 12th. No reason to concede the 10-2 with this tiebreaker.

[Devils30]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

The idea is that as long as Kim lives in the district he’ll be happy to get a Biden +35 district instead of a Trump district. Any 2022 configuration that guarantees Kim safety will have to include Mercer, it’s just how much of Ocean to include.

But you left him with no district at all. Norcross is in the Camden district and Watson Coleman is in the Trenton district.

Before 2018, the Dems had only the Camden seat for a long time, so it’s not ancestral. I think it could be decently likely that whatever they draw backfires in South Jersey, if Mercer isn’t included.

From a fairness perspective, perhaps, but the Democrats aren't going to accept eliminating Andy Kim and Tom Malinowski.

This is completely predicated on Watson Coleman retiring as I said in the initial post. It’s a dumb map if she’s not, but from what I’ve read she is expected to. Then Kim gets to occupy the safe 12th. The idea of the map is that every incumbent who plans to run in 2022 bar Malinowski gets a safe seat.

No chance the Ds settle for anything less than 9-3. And unpacking 12 helps them take advantage of trends.

[Devils30]

Since there's no road connectivity between the two halves of NJ-02 on your map, you might as well drop the pretense of any connectivity other than water connectivity around Atlantic City. That might be able to get you another point in NJ-12.

There are also some Democratic precincts left in NJ-4 that could be freed into NJ-12.

Overall very creative map, though. Never seen Chris Smith pushed northward instead of eastward. Realistically the Democrats would probably just screw him and put him in NJ-12, though, which makes their whole task much easier.

It is so easy to draw an NJ-12 with Warren, Hunterdon, Mercer with a few towns in Somerset or Middlesex that is Clinton +15/Biden +20 territory. Screwing Malinowski by chopping the current NJ-7 into four pieces probably makes more sense than just giving away a Dem trending seat to the GOP.

[Devils30]

Most American commoners don't even know what gerrymandering is.

Democrats should not even campaign on "End Gerrymandering", the average Joe doesn't even know what the hell that means.

The political junkies and political insiders know what that is, it is too complex for the commoner to understand.

NJ Dems should go for the jugular, and ax Smith and Van Drew; Smith has been in office for 40 years without any accomplishments, Van Drew is a weasel and he could have remained a conservative Democrat from South Jersey like he was in the Legislature.

Make it a all Democratic coalition, put some parts of Vin Gopal's hometown in Smith's district and that makes it easier for a Middlesex Democrat from New Brunswick or South Amboy to replace Pallone or so.....if you add Holmdel to Pallone's district, that would make it more red.

A 12-0 D map in NJ could easily become a dummymander and is impossible to draw without violating the VRA. 11-1 is a stretch and 10-2 is the best they can expect from the commission.

[Devils30]

Looks like a 9-2-1 map, not 9-3

yeah dont know why people are considering the Biden +4 district a GOP district.

In 2022 it is.

Kean will win in 2022, assuming he wins the primary. I don’t think this is a lock considering the new territory that he’ll need to appeal to. If a far right R somehow won then we’d have a tossup.  

7 is the most Dem trending part of the state. Not hard seeing it become 10-2 by 2024-28. If Trump was still President, Malinowski is favored in 2022 vs Kean.

[Devils30]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

[Devils30]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

[Devils30]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

Kean barely lost an Biden+10 seat in 2020. No reason to think he can’t win a Biden+12 in 2022, a better year for his party

These are the worst type of GOP voters post Roe. Honestly I’m not sure Kean holds the NJ-7 he’s running in past 2024.

The 7th in that map is Clinton +5 and less ancestrally R than the current 7th. My point is that NJ Dems would draw a very effective gerrymander with this map.