Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Devils30]

I feel like Boebert could fare really poorly with a commission, people will want to see her be out of Congress. A 5-3 D map seems the most likely but I would go for 6-2 if I'm the Dems. CO is a blue state and should reflect it.

[Devils30]

I would not be shocked if the commission was persuaded by the fact CO is a blue state, draws a 6-2 D map. It would likely be something like CO-8 leaning heavily Dem and CO-3 being like Biden +7 in a seat a more moderate R could win but Boebert would be finished in.

[Devils30]

Looked at a bunch of commission comments and conjured up this map in about a half hour:

I think I like it better than my previous CO map from a COI standpoint. Partisanship wise, it split 4-4 in President 2020 (and in every election on DRA) but has some silly dummymander potential down the line: the 2nd (Fort Collins/Greeley) was Trump +1.7; the 4th (Douglas plus other conservative Denver suburbs and rurals) was Trump +7.1; the 3rd (Pueblo/Grand Junction) was Trump +12.8; the 5th (Colorado Springs) was Trump +10.9. They should all be safe in 2022, but all of them could conceivably fall in 2026 under a blue wave if the trend line in CO continues.

Obviously Boebert gets absolutely screwed here, unless she carpetbags one county south.

I don't think 4-4 is that likely, CO is not a swing state anymore.

[Devils30]

How much of Boulder is in CO-3? Hard to tell with this map. Off top of my head it looks 5-3 but I need to know more about Boulder. The writing obscures it a bit.

[Devils30]

And the new 7th almost certainly went Biden by 5+ I would think?

[Devils30]

I would estimate CO-7 is around 53-46 Biden. Both 7 and 3 are trending D so it could be 4-4 in a good GOP year, 5-3 in a 2020 type year and 6-2 in a 2018.

[Devils30]

7 will start out close ish but by 2026 won't be competitive.

[Devils30]

Given the trends of Jefferson and Douglas it's hard to feel that 7 should be anything other than Tilt D in a neutral environment.

[Devils30]

Given trends the GOP might have to worry more about 5 than 3 later on. 5 is Dem trending but might not be competitive until 2028.

[Devils30]

One on hand, would have been nice for a 6-2 map but Dems have a shot at new seat there that is more Dem than the country as a whole.

[Devils30]

Dems have nothing to lose complaining, if they can get Boebert's district to be 7-10 points bluer and/or CO-7 safer why not at least try?

That said, CO-7 only is red if Dems already lose 25 seats.

[Devils30]

Dems should pick a Manchin type in CO-3, give in on the gun issue and run against Boebert as a traitor to this country based on her behavior 1/6.

[Devils30]

I tried my best to replicate CLARRO's map of making a district 40% Hispanic, my north Denver district is 31.4% voting pop is Hispanic. Biden won my CO-3 map by 52 votes! Map is 4 Biden seats - 2 Trump seats and 1 toss-up seat.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/96e6c508-84b7-41e5-9730-5a0a8764cb59

A normal R probably easily wins 2022 in that type of district but Boebert is so far out there it might be enough to screw her.

[Devils30]

It looks like a 5-3 map with all 5 Dems Biden +10 or better.

[Devils30]

Dems should challenge this at the state Sup. Ct and ask it to go back to drawing board. It's not reflective of the state at all and has weird lines.