Pennsylvania in 2016

[Devils30]

I think most on this board agree with me that this very well will be the tipping point state this time around. Clinton is a strong fit for Virginia and Trump is too weak with DC suburbanites and blacks to win there. I can see 2016 in PA as a culmination of trends since 1988.

Trump expands on Romney numbers in SW PA, wins double digits in Fayette, Beaver and gets over 60% in Washington, Greene, Cambria and Westmoreland counties.

Clinton wins Montgomery, DelCo and Bucks by above 2008 Obama margins and flips Chester and Berks back after <1% Romney wins in both. She also trims the GOP numbers in Lancaster to near single digits.

Overall these trends cancel each other out and PA stays slightly D leaning.

[Devils30]

2010 Senate map idea is interesting but Trump won't get Toomey numbers in the Philly area, he'll do much worse. The 2010 PA map would also be a Democratic victory with Presidential turnout patterns.

[Devils30]

The problem for the GOP is that the candidates who appeal to western PA (Trump) are toxic in eastern PA. Rubio meanwhile may not take advantage of western PA enough to offset usual Dem wins in eastern PA.

[Devils30]

If that NBC poll is anything close to accurate, Trump will get destroyed in eastern PA.