Electoral College problems for Republicans

[Devils30]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/30/hillary-clinton-electoral-college-problem

This article might be correct on Iowa and Colorado but it neglects Hillary's numbers in Florida. I also caution against comparing polls from different pollsters in different states.

[Devils30]

I think this is a realistic PVI map (that means if the country splits exactly 50/50, not who wins each state). Florida and Wisconsin are the tough ones here. A lot of people here don't think Florida can lean D but that only takes a 2.99% trend. In years with new candidates (2000, 2008) that number is very common either way as opposed to re-election years (2004, 2012).

[Devils30]

New Jersey is not going red in 2016, Christie's approvals there are way down and doubtful he can beat Hillary. A lot of Republicans are overconfident about 2016, Obama in the mid 40s probably will not sink Hillary. Hillary had led Jeb and Rubio in every single Florida poll and the electorate there will only be around 64% white in 2016.

[Devils30]

There's a lot of talk about what these elections mean for Colorado in 2016 but any GOP gains there would be more than cancelled out if Florida and the southeast is trending blue.

[Devils30]

The GOP isn't winning New Mexico and most likely not Nevada in 2016. Both just aren't white enough unless whites vote like southern whites and they don't in the west. Colorado is a possibility but I have doubts that it will be any more red than R+2 PVI.