Toss Up States

[Devils30]

It really has been a very consistent swing state despite huge movement in most of the country since the 1950s. Ohio is relatively pro-union but not quite as much as Michigan and Pennsylvania. It is also a little whiter than those two and has more of a southern influence than other midwestern state. This has affected elections as we've seen SE Ohio and south central Ohio (outside Hamilton County) trend R. On the other hand, the counter trends in Columbus toward Dems have more or less cancelled out the GOP gains in rural Ohio.
The Toledo area is the most interesting to watch going forward. Obama barely lost anything from his 2012 margin here and ran well ahead of Bush's performances. That being said, the auto-bailout probably helped him a good deal. The political leanings of the future are up for debate, although Hillary could be a strong candidate. Ottawa County right next to Toledo has picked the presidential winner in most elections. Demographically it isn't even close to a microcosm of America but it sure represents the country and state well.

[Devils30]

Still, with Virginia trending D and states like Florida having favorable demographics for Dems it is impossible for the GOP to win without it. Dems don't need OH although the path is still quite narrow without it.

[Devils30]

I agree at the moment that Florida leans R. But predicting the future involves looking at census numbers too and the states growing Hispanic population along with a decent number of blacks moving in should worry the GOP a bit. I doubt FL would be D+ before 2020 but Hillary is a strong candidate here.

[Devils30]

You can't call Florida a bellwether right at the moment. On election night it was clear Obama was going to win even had Romney carried Florida narrowly.