Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania

[Devils30]

   To win PA, the GOP will need to become somewhat more competitive in the northeast. Most think of PA as a midwestern state but the Philly area and Lehigh Valley is definitely northeastern. Romney won almost everything west of Chester County with the exception of Allegheny (which judging from the past 20 years is not moving like the rest of western PA. Dems have enough of a base in Pittsburgh to stay on top there. Smaller towns like Erie, Harrisburg have also trended D, even against the areas around them.
 The math is problematic for the GOP, the only way for them is to cut D margins slightly in Philly and do much better in the inner suburbs of Delaware, Bucks, Montgomery. Obama didn't even do as well as Kerry in some and still won the state easy. A candidate like Hillary is a nightmare for the GOP b/c she very likely does better than Obama ever did in western PA and at worst a few points better than Obama 2012. Movement toward the D's there without any significant R swing in Philly area is fatal to any GOP chances. Places like Scranton are logical GOP targets but these voters haven't moved R. Scranton isnt appalachian- the trends sure show.