The electoral map in 10 years (user search)
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  The electoral map in 10 years (search mode)
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Author Topic: The electoral map in 10 years  (Read 17518 times)
Devils30
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,042
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« on: February 24, 2013, 12:34:09 AM »

I think after the GOP has a couple more presidential flops they'll begin to recover and the midwest is the first place they can look to (MI, WI, MN, IA, PA). As for the next decade, most likely things change little in PA, OH and the rest of the rust belt but VA becomes a lean D state and dems make Arizona close, while maintaining CO, NV. Dems also begin  to contest Georgia but it still leans R and NC becomes a pure tossup.

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Devils30
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,042
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2013, 09:42:54 PM »

PA: Not sure the GOP has much to be optimistic about even in the short term here. Yeah, it trended slightly R this time but Romney also made that last ditch surge after Obama led the entire time. Obama did terrible in Western PA and still won by over 5 even without doing well in parts of metro Philly (Bucks, Chester, Berks pretty much a tie). Hillary at the top of the ticket likely would make PA lean D by a larger margin. Plus the areas of PA that are growing are not where the GOP is surging.

GA: Don't discount the chances a Dem by 2020 could have here. Counties like Gwinnett are 43% white, yet Romney won by 9. Simply put, the GOP is on borrowed time in places like that in metro Atl and theyve pretty much maxed out the white vote in rural areas.

VA: I think Dems can get to high 60s in Fairfax, mid 60s in Prince William, high 50s in Loudoun if trends continue.

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