Devils30
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,085
Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00
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« on: June 19, 2012, 11:59:51 PM » |
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The state has been drifting away from the GOP since 1996. Hispanic population is part but the state has a large white, educated demographic that Obama has held onto much better.
2000: Had a Democratic trend even with Nader siphoning off a large percentage of Gore votes (over 5%)
2004: Bush won but margin of victory considerably thinner even as he improved nationwide. Dems also won open senate seat in a GOP friendly year.
2006: Dems win everything, easily take the open 7th district
2008: Obama posts a larger victory than his nationwide average, Dems easily take the other senate seat.
2010: Despite a GOP landslide the wave is considerably smaller. Dems hold senate seat, governorship, state senate and even the state house is a draw. Both of the GOP house pickups (3rd, 4th) come in districts mccain won and the 4th was always a solidly red seat and the 3rd was quite close.
2012 outlook: Of course Romney COULD win but its PVI should be D+1-2, meaning Romney will only win as icing on the cake.
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