If you headed the DCCC in 2018..... (user search)
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  If you headed the DCCC in 2018..... (search mode)
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Author Topic: If you headed the DCCC in 2018.....  (Read 5848 times)
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progressive85
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,395
United States
« on: January 23, 2017, 04:02:35 PM »

This would be my list.  A lot of these are never going to go blue, but the important thing would be to field very strong candidates even in conservative districts so that the Rs are forced to spend money in what would ordinary be safe seats. 

I think what  happened on  on Saturday was very rare.  It felt like a Tea Party Movement in one day.  I think that energy needs to be harnessed and poured completely into the 2018 elections.  I remember 2006 very well and I remember how they said the Democrats couldn't take it back, but they did.

Go to the town halls, start letter writing campaigns, have sit-ins, text these people, follow them on social media, film YouTube videos questioning them about Trump's agenda.

The ones marked with * are must-wins for a House takeover.  The Democrats need 24 seats.  It CAN happen.

AK - Don Young - I think he had scandal issues and he's had a couple of close calls.

AZ 2 - Martha McSally- Great life story, but swing district.  This was Gabby Giffords' seat.

AR 2 - French Hill- A guy with the first name 'French' just doesn't fit in with Arkansas.  This is the least Republican district in the state.

CA 10- Jeff Denham*- They tried with Michael Eggman in '16, but they may need to go with a stronger person.

CA 21- David Valadao- He keeps winning by large margins, probably entrenched.

CA 25- Steve Knight*- This guy said something about Medicare that was controversial, barely won.  I think California Republicans are going to have a rough 2018.

CA 39- Ed Royce

CA 45- Mimi Walters

CA 48- Dana Rohrabacher - Royce, Walters, and Rohrabacher have conservative seats, but there was a move towards Hillary in '16.

CA 49- Darrell Issa*- Absolutely has to go, and I think he feels like he's a top target.

CO 3- Scott Tipton- If the Democrats are having a really good night, this can be an indicator of just how good.

CO 6- Mike Coffman- he seems to be moderate, and he should be.  His district is swingy.

FL 16- Vern Buchanan- this guy first won back in '06 against a woman named Christine Jennings and it was razor-thin.  His margin in 2012 was not impressive.

FL 18- Brian Mast- The successor to Patrick Murphy, maybe Murphy can try for a comeback and win his old seat back?

FL 26- Carlos Curbelo- I like him, and that's the issue here.  Sadly, if Democrats sweep, he'll be defeated.

FL 27- Ileana Ros-Lehtinen- She's entrenched and has been popular here.  She's very pro-LGBTQ which helps define her as a moderate.

GA 6- Tom Price- Hillary won this district in a shocker and the Democrats need to try for it.

IL 6- Peter Roskam- Very hard I think to win this, but there should be a strong D candidate anyway.

IL 12- Mike Bost- This was extremely close in 2012.

IL 13- Rodney Davis- This was just as close in 2012.

IN 2- Jackie Walorski- She seems like she doesn't have as good of a hold on the district as maybe she should.  It was close in 2012.

IN-5- Susan Brooks- If she runs against Joe Donnelly, this becomes an open seat.  In an anti-Trump year, this is worth having a good candidate.

IN 8- Larry Bucshon- This area used to be very swingy, tying Bucshon to Trump may reduce his margin.

IN 9- Trey Hollingsworth- Shelli Yoder was a former Miss Indiana, and she's tried twice I believe.  He was not that popular.  This is the crown jewel of the Indiana seats - this seat will be a strong indicator of any national trend.

IA 1- Rod Blum- I think Anesa Kajtazovic would be great here.

IA 3- David Young- Might be as they say "fool's good" but this may be competitive...

KS 2- Lynn Jenkins- She may run for Governor, so this will be open.  Unlikely but Democrats could do well in Kansas.

KS 3- Kevin Yoder*- This guy because of he swam nude in the Red Sea or something like that.

KY 6- Andy Barr- Jim Gray won this district in the Senate race against Rand Paul.  Gray ran a very strong campaign.

ME- Bruce Poliquin*- This is New England and a Democratic House is likely to have an all-blue New England delegation.

MI 1- Jack Bergman- Was supposed to be closer in 2016.  I don't think this area is trending D.
 
MI 3- Justin Amash- He's a bit of a maverick, so I like him.  If this isn't close, he's entrenched.

MI 6- Fred Upton- This guy's been in there a while, the margins aren't great, but he must be very well-known in the district.

MI 7- Tim Walberg- This is a fundamentalist kind of a Republican and this is the most likely Michigan seat to switch.

MI 8- Mike Bishop- The girl from Little House on the Prairie was going to run here but then changed her mind.  He may be a good fit.

MI 11- David Trott- In 2012, the Democrat won one of the two elections.

MN 2- Jason Lewis- He's got a history, and his face blending into Trump's in a campaign ad may just do the trick.

MN 3- Erik Paulsen- Ds had hoped this would be competitive, but it wasn't.

MO 2- Ann Wagner- If she runs against Sen. McCaskill, this is an open seat, and its the least Republican of the currently red seats.

MT- Ryan Zinke- Montana is surprisingly competitive for a state that is regarded as so Republican at the presidential level.

NE 2- Don Bacon- Not sure if Brad Ashford wants to run in a rematch.

NJ 2- Frank LoBiondo- If he retires, this becomes a big opportunity.

NJ 3- Tom MacArthur- Needs someone viable

NJ 7- Leonard Lance- Hillary won here and the hold on the seat could be slipping.

NM 2- Steve Pearce- I don't know if this is the same district from 2008, but he was defeated.

NY 1- Lee Zeldin*- I don't think Zeldin's entrenched yet despite the Trumpism on Long Island.

NY 2- Peter King- He was not fond of Trump and might be a thorn in his side.

NY 11- Dan Donovan- Staten Island's very red, but could be swingy in a rough year for Republicans.

NY 19- John Faso- Zephyr I don't think was the best choice.

sorry...got tired of typing...

NY 21- Elise Stefanik
NY 22- Claudia Tenney
NY 23- Tom Reed
NY 24- John Katko
NY 27- Chris Collins
NC 2- George Holding
NC 9- Robert Pittenger
NC 13- Ted Budd
OH 1- Steve Chabot
OH 6- Bill Johnson
OH 7- Bob Gibbs
OH 10- Mike Turner
OH 14- David Joyce
OH 15- Steve Stivers
OH 16- Jim Renacci
PA 3- Mike Kelly
PA 6- Ryan Costello
PA 7- Pat Meehan
PA 8- Brian Fitzpatrick
PA 11- Lou Barletta
PA 12- Keith Rothfus
PA 15- Charlie Dent (even though I'd like to save him, he's my favorite House Republican)
PA 16- Lloyd Smucker
SC 7- Tom Rice
SD- Kristi Noem
TN 4- Scott DesJarlais
TX 23- Will Hurd
UT 4- Mia Love
VA 2- Scott Taylor
VA 5- Tom Garrett
VA 10- Barbara Comstock
WA 3- Jaime Herrera Beutler
WA 5- Cathy McMorris Rodgers
WA 8- Dave Reichert
WV 2- Alex Mooney
WI 1- Paul Ryan
WI 6- Glenn Grothman
WI 7- Sean Duffy
WI 8- Mike Gallagher
WY- Liz Cheney
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