Is the Senate lost for a generation for the Dems?

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Let's see:

ID, MT, ID, WY, UT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MS, AL, TN, KY, WV, AR, LA, MO, GA, SC, IN, AK - there's 23 conservative states, 46 Republican senators.

VT, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, MA, RI, CA, OR, WA, HI - there's 12 progressive states, 24 Democratic senators.

So already there is basically double the safe Rs than safe Ds.  The pathway for Rs  to get a majority is much easier than for the Democrats.

Republicans probably can get the 2 AZ seats, so that takes them to 48.  All they need is 3 more -- Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, boom.

The Democrats would have to certainly win all 12 New England seats -- adding NH and ME, they can get to 26 seats.  They'd have to have both seats in MN -- 28 -- and NV, NM, and CO -- there's 6 for 34.  They need 17 more seats for a bare majority.  MI they have 2... 36 seats.  Then VA, both.  38.  WI, 40.  (sorry im bad at math)  Now they need 10.  They need to have at least one in PA, OH, and FL.  Now they need 7.

Democrats had so many seats in 2009-2010 because they had some very red-state senators and just like those House seats, they're not winning those seats back.

I honestly don't know if the Democrats will have a comfortable Senate majority in the 20's.  That might be a tough decade for them.  I think the House, after its been de-gerrymandered, has more potential for a Democratic takeover.

2018 really needs to be the year of state victories-- state houses, state senates, governors-- that's going to matter so much more than very precarious congressional victories.