IOWA POLL

[StevenNick]

The polls will show a close race between Dean and Gephardt up until the caucuses, but in the end Dean is going to win by a surprisingly solid margin (5 percentage points or so) as his network of voters turns out and Gephardt's doesn't.  

A victory in Iowa is going to push Dean to a huge victory over Kerry in New Hampshire (which he'll probably win even without a victory in Iowa).  A victory in New Hampshire may well translate into a victory in South Carolina, too.  In any event, after New Hampshire Dean will be unstoppable.  He's going to waltz his way to the nomination.

But watch Dean go down in flames in November 2004 (the ghosts of 1984 come back to haunt the Dems once more).