Dean & McGovern

[StevenNick]

I don't know that there will ever be another McGovern.  Every election and every candidate is different.  The reasons Mondale lost are not the same as the reasons McGovern lost and different from all the possible reasons that Dean may lose.

That being said, I do think there are some similarities shaping up between 2004 and 1972.  It's interesting that Dean is getting his support from the same slice of the democratic party that McGovern got his.  Both candidates won the nomination with the support from college students, white yuppie liberals, and gays.  

I don't think Howard Dean is primed for the same kind of loss as McGovern, though.  I think he will lose, but it will be a loss more like Bob Dole's in 1996--solid, but not embarrassing.

There's only one way to see if Dean is a McGovern:  wait and see.

[StevenNick]

No....
The country has changed alot, I can't see someone fairing as badly as McGovern again.  Even being the weakest of candidates, Dean still has Massachusetts, RI, VT, NY, DC, CT, and HI in the bag, which gives him a solid 64 Ev's.

I think you're right.  The only way Dean would lose those states is if he ran an absolutely awful campaign and had Ralph Nader and Al Sharpton running as third party spoilers and we caught Osama the week before the election.  Even then Massachusetts and D.C. would still go Dean.

[StevenNick]

I suppose to be consistent with my map in the Predictions section, I should say "No -- Dean won't be the next McGovern."  I have Bush defeating a generic Democratic candidate by a 317-221 count, with the Democrat winning ME, VT, MA, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, MI, IL, WA, CA, and HI.  Or to put it another way, Bush holds all states he won in 2000, and tacks on WI, MN, IA, NM, and OR.

Although the potential is definately there for a Bush blowout in 2004, I predicted in my map that Bush would win with 335 EVs to the Dean's 203 EVs.