Coronavirus & 2020

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Given that the virus has become far more severe and may very well spread to the States, how will it affect 2020?

We really don't know how severe its impact will be, especially in the US. Personally, I think most of its impact on the election will be in how it shapes other stories - what does or doesn't get coverage as a result of the 2019 coronavirus outbreak.


For example, if it gets a great deal of media attention, but doesn't really have much impact, it could be very good for Trump - distracting from his (apparent) dementia, and letting him claim he did a good job stopping it.  On the flip side, if it is seen as a major problem for the US, that could end up exposing his inability and doing a great deal of damage.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Best case for Trump: it doesn't get that much worse but stays in the news. US impact is real but minimal and readily handled. The arrival of spring really does help reduce the infection rate. Economic problems can be successfully blamed on the global pandemic, but he can credibly claim to have done a good job responding to it without immediate derisive laughter. Trump spends the fall bragging that the US health care system is the best in the world, and comparing the impact on the US to the impact in nations with some form of universal health care.

Best case for the Dem nominee: a full-blown pandemic sweeps the US. It overwhelms existing healthcare infrastructure which makes the crisis even worse. The web and the MSM are full of video of overcrowded hospitals and stories about people dying on the job because they can't get time off and are terrified of losing their health coverage. Government response is widely seen as inadequate, ineffective, corrupt, and poorly led. Meanwhile, the global economy is tanking and reminding everyone of 2007-2008 as the US economy goes along with it. Trump spends the fall campaigning on how great the economy is and how terrible universal health care would be, insisting that the epidemic is a fake Chinese hoax meant to target him personally.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Chance of death increases with age, and most deaths are in the elderly.

Plus, there is little chance Trump is going to stop doing rallies. (At least, for reasons of public health.)

If the epidemic in the US is severe, it will disproportionately impact Republican voters.