The elephant in the room - Donald Trump's physical and mental deterioration

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Title change 9/3/19 - we can't know exactly what is causing Mr. Trump mental faculties to fail without an independent examination.

2nd title change 6/13/20 - Mr. Trump appears to be having motor/movement difficulties along with the return of some speech issues


Set aside, for a bit, how you feel about the GOP in general, or the Trump Administration's politics. Ignore, for a while, allegations of fraud or corruption. Understand that the question here is not about Trump skill (or lack of it) as an executive. Instead, focus on just one thing:

Is Donald Trump suffering from severe dementia and incapable of executing  the duties of the Presidency?

Donald Trump’s Dementia Is Showing, Had To Be Reminded To Shake Japanese PM’s Hand
https://twitter.com/BloombergAsia/status/1144400197205708800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

But I'm not starting this thread over one incident. This has been building over time, "Tim Apple. Oranges. German Dad. Mental Health Experts Warn That Trump Is In Decline." Since Mr. Trump's return from his Asia trip, there have been multiple bizarre errors that match dementia symptoms. There are ones I've already mentioned, talking about "brand new Sherman tanks" and his rambling, incoherent interview with Tucker Carlson .

And then there's this from his speech on the 4th:
https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1146973411656294400

This has passed far beyond the domain of any reasonable politics. It is about a sick old man, and those concealing his condition to the detriment of the nation, for their own benefit.

Editing 8/30/2019:

Trump cancellations
Trump cancels Denmark trip after PM says Greenland isn't for sale (8/21/2019)

Trump cancels trip to Poland, says he is staying in the U.S. to monitor Hurricane Dorian (8/29/19)

Trump says he canceled secret Camp David meeting with Taliban leaders (9/7/2019)

Trump Cancels Trip To Outer Banks After Lightning Storm Surrounds Air Force One in NC Airport (9/9/19)
(Mr. Trump did attend his North Carolina rally on the same day.)
White House abruptly cancels meeting with vaping advocates(9/19/19)
US cancels meeting between PM Mitsotakis and President Trump (9/25/19)

Press denied scheduled access to National Day for the Victims of Communism with President Trump(11/07/2019)

Editing 6/13/20:

We've gone through four broad phases of Mr. Trump's apparent health issues over the last year.

Phase One: June 2019 through November 2019

Mr. Trump regularly demonstrated issues with speech, pronunciation and a failure to grasp context. In November, he has a sudden visit to Walter Reed, ostensibly for a months-early 2020 physical.

Phase Two: November 2019 - February 2020

Mr. Trump makes few public appearances, and when he does they are heavily scripted events. No yellicopter sessions. Appearances without obvious physical and mental issues are rare. Events are regularly canceled with little notice.

Phase Three: March 2020 - April 2020

Mr. Trump frequently appears in public again, makes off-the cuff remarks that have coherence, makes it through day after day of coronavirus briefings. (What he said may be nuts, but he was able to stay on topic and present himself as well as he ever has.) Many symptoms present since June 2019 are now absent.

Phase Four: May 2020 - June 2020

Coronavirus briefings fade out. Mr. Trump reportedly went through a round of coronavirus treatment. Increasing coverage of incoherence in speech, increasing reports of physical issues.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Let's face it, this is an age issue. For sure, not every 70 or 75 year old is demented, but it's a fair point to raise if someone that age is POTUS. That's also why Biden shouldn't be prez. Possibly Sanders as well, although he makes a more vital impression.

Trump has definitely lost some of his cognitive skills in recent years. Just compare his interviews now with from 20 years ago. Back then, he had a much wider vocabulary. Today, he's talking a lot of crap, regardless of his actual policies.

Heck, just watch some early seasons of the Apprentice. He comes across as 10x the president 2019 Trump could ever be.

That was mostly the editing.

Donald Trump obviously wasn't the only reason why The Apprentice's editing team had to fudge footage, and the success of reality TV has long been attributed (by those in the know) to the editors who craft narratives where none may have existed otherwise. For instance, Jonathon Braun claims that each hour-long Apprentice episode gets as many as 300 hours of taped footage.

He was never that coherent.

Katherine Walker told me that producers often struggled to make Trump seem coherent, editing out garbled syntax and malapropisms. “We cleaned it up so that he was his best self,” she said, adding, “I’m sure Donald thinks that he was never edited.” However, she acknowledged, he was a natural for the medium: whereas reality-TV producers generally must amp up personalities and events, to accentuate conflict and conjure intrigue, “we didn’t have to change him—he gave us stuff to work with.” Trump improvised the tagline for which “The Apprentice” became famous: “You’re fired.”

He wasn't really together to begin with, but now he's falling apart.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1149013891512492033

Video link:
https://youtu.be/yDE95MzYcSs?t=1410

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I dislike Trump and leery of his abilities, but it's clear Trump was using "heart" here in a metaphorical sense relating to the emotional impact of kidney disease, not a literal sense of the kidney being a suborgan of the heart.

1) "What he really meant was" is used too often as a defense of Mr. Trump.

2) The mangled metaphor is the least of it. Watch the clip I cued up. He did okay with the teleprompter-fed speech, but once he went off-script, what came out was struggling to qualify as coherent sentences.

Here's a section from the official transcript:

Thank you very much for being here.  I just do want to thank some of the people, because Seema and Alex and so many of the people — senator, congressman — you’ve worked so hard on these things.  You’ve worked so hard on the kidney.  Very special — the kidney has a very special place in the heart.  It’s an incredible thing.  People that have to go this — people that have loved ones that are working so hard to stay alive.  They have to work so hard.  There’s an esprit de corps.  There’s a spirit like you see rarely on anything.

It doesn't even climb to the level of word salad.

Yes, I agree, he was trying for a generic "emotional impact" button with the "heart" reference.  And it didn't work in a way that drew attention because it seemed like such a comically mangled metaphor. But the failure of the metaphor highlights a much more troubling fundamental incoherence.  Imagine if instead, he'd said,

Thank you very much for being here.  I just do want to thank some of the people, because Seema and Alex and so many of the people — senator, congressman — you’ve worked so hard on these things.  You’ve worked so hard on small business.  Very special — small business has a very special place in the heart.  It’s an incredible thing.  People that have to go this — people that have loved ones that are working so hard to make it.  They have to work so hard.  There’s an esprit de corps.  There’s a spirit like you see rarely on anything.

It would have worked, in the sense that there would be no "haha, Trump said a dumb thing" coverage by the press. But it still would have been a generic mess of nonsense with no indication Trump possesses any awareness of what he's talking about. And he does this regularly.

Not all the time. Yet. But unscripted public appearances have gotten notably worse in the last month or so. I don't think he knows what he's talking about much of the time. It appears to me that he just falls back, reflexively, to his habitual speech patterns, with heavy repetition (another sign of dementia).

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

In light of today's day-long blatantly racist Twitter rant,

Why Self-Control Fails in Dementia

It is the ventromedial (lower-middle) parts of the frontal lobes, just above our nose, that inhibit inappropriate responses. These regions are connected to our reptilian brain through white-matter tracts. White matter is made of long axons and dendrites—the parts of brain cells that connect with each other—covered with white myelin insulation that allows fast communication. You can think of the white matter as the wiring inside the brain that links together all the different parts. The frontal lobes also connect directly to the output parts of our brains, such as speech and the movement of our muscles, through white-matter tracts.

Some causes of dementia, such as frontotemporal dementia, affect the frontal lobes directly in the early part of the disease. In Alzheimer’s disease, chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), HIV associated dementia, and several other disorders, different parts of the brain may be involved first, but the disease eventually spreads to the frontal lobes. Other causes of damage to the frontal lobes include strokes and traumatic brain injuries (TBIs). Thus, in all of these disorders, the frontal lobes that govern and control behavior may be directly damaged or destroyed.

Other causes of dementia affect the white-matter tracts in the brain that go to and from the frontal lobes. These include vascular dementia (dementia due to strokes) and multiple sclerosis. Both severe and mild TBIs—particularly when repeated—also disrupt the white matter in the brain.

We all know that Mr. Trump is unfit to be President. The question is, will the Republicans do anything about it? (Sadly, I expect the answer is, "no".)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Yale psychiatrist: Trump using racism as a coping mechanism as his mental state rapidly deteriorates

Raw Story: Donald Trump told “Progressive Democrat Congresswomen” to go back to the countries they came from. When they rebutted, he doubled down, accusing them of spewing “foul language & racist hatred.” What do you make of these comments?

Bandy X. Lee: The first thing this indicates to me is that the president is deteriorating rapidly. He attacks as a maladaptive means of coping with stress, and he won’t stop. Given the rigidity of his repertoire, we can expect more, escalating attacks.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

This sort of thing didn't work against Reagan, who was demonstrably suffering from early-onset Alzheimer's during his second term. Why do you think it will work against Trump, who is pandering to his semi-literate base at least as often as he makes genuine gaffes?

Because Reagan didn't suffer from dementia while he was in office, nor was he undergoing the rigors of campaigning for office during his second term?
While Known for Being Forgetful, Reagan Was Mentally Sound in Office, Doctors Say (NYT, 1997)
President Reagan didn't have Alzheimer's while in office (CNN, 2018)


And this isn't a matter of some sort of tactic "working". I'm commenting on what we can all see happening right in front of us.  The only questions are "how bad will it get, and how fast will it progress" and "how is the Republican party going to react".

The answer to the first question cannot be certain, because we don't know which of the many kinds of dementia Mr. Trump is suffering from and how it's being treated. From what I've read, it seems likely that Mr. Trump will be unable to stand in front of a crowd and read from a teleprompter in a year or so. 

That leads to the second question, "how is the Republican party going to react?" It looks like so long as he can stand and lead a rally, they will back him. When he can no longer do that - which I think will likely come before the 2020 election, I expect he will be replaced, but I'm not sure by whom.  Exactly when his dementia becomes inescapable will have a big impact. Before the primaries? Before the convention?  After the convention but before the election?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Yazidi human rights advocated and Noble Peace Prize recipient Nadia Murad spoke with Mr. Trump while survivors of religious persecution were welcomed at the White House yesterday (7/18/2019):
 
Nadia Murad: “They [ISIS] Killed my mom, my six brothers.”

Donald Trump: “Where are they now?”

Murad: “They Killed them, they are in the mass graves in Sinjar.”

Donald Trump <Looks around. Silently nods>

https://youtu.be/xYUW-1Wg2xs?t=150

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Ex-Bush aide says Trump falls back on racism because he’s losing his mind: ‘Take him to Walter Reed for a full medical’

“It’s just incredible to me that we still are not being just more forthright and, you know, saying this for what it is,” she said. “You know, you listen to how he’s speaking sometimes and the crazy things that come out of his mouth, and you wonder why someone isn’t just taking him to Walter Reed (National Military Medical Center) for a full medical because it doesn’t seem to be flowing that well, and I think it’s why he’s going back to his greatest original trick, being racist.”

Walter Reed probably isn't enough. It's credibility is gone after they spun Trump's physical the way he wanted earlier this year. Obama Health Official Slams Trump's Second Annual Physical Exam: 'No Doctor Can Predict Someone's Future Health'

After Trump underwent a thorough physical examination at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on Friday, the president's personal physician Dr. Sean Conley declared he was in "very good health" and "will remain so for the duration of his Presidency, and beyond."

Although, Conley, who's also the current director of the White House medical unit, didn't reveal any results from the four-hour examination which was led by a team of 11 specialists, he did mention that "reports and recommendations are being finalized."

"No doctor can predict someone's future health," Klain tweeted in response to Conley's statement on Saturday. "This is a disgrace to an office with a great tradition of professionalism. Just another institution turned into a joke by a President determined to make anyone willing to submit an instrument of his lies."

Trump should get top-quality medical care - at an institution he can't order to lie for him. Johns Hopkins would be an excellent choice.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Mr. Trump's press Q&A prior to his departure to Ohio rally had him in good shape, better than any public appearance for a while. Leaving aside the cringe-worthy content of his "answers" (the usual mix of schoolboy-who-forgot-the-homework meets used-car-salesman lies), he was able to articulate and stay on topic for the whole 20 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rqukMyploU

It will be interesting to see if this continues through the rally this evening.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

'Those who died in Toledo': Trump mixes up Ohio cities while giving remarks on mass shootings

President Donald Trump errored at the end of his Monday remarks about the weekend's mass shootings by mixing up the Ohio city where one of the shootings happened.

Trump said that one of the shootings happened in Toledo, Ohio, rather than Dayton. The cities are about134 miles apart.

"If we are able to pass great legislation after all of these years, we will ensure that those who were attacked will not have died in vain. May God bless the memory of those who died in Toledo. May God protect them," Trump said.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

As far as I'm aware, Mr. Trump has had no public presence since his Hampton's fundraiser 3 days ago, where he showed off his Asian accent, said nice things about 'Little Rocket Man' and murderous autocrat Mohammed Bin Salman, verbally threatened America's allis, and made kamikaze jokes before giving an incoherent, sweat-soaked interview. Since then, his only presence has been to re-tweet conspiracy theories and argue about fellow C-list TV stars.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Remarks by President Trump on American Energy and Manufacturing | Monaco, PA 2:06 P.M. EDT

Trump claimed the ethane-cracking plant he was speaking at would not exist if he hadn't been elected.

And as Gretchen said, this would have never happened without me and us.  This would have never happened.

Reality: Governor Wolf Announces Finalized Plan for Royal Dutch Shell Plant in Western PA June 09, 2016

Now, like much of what Trump says, it's hard to tell if the above untruth is the product of a mind suffering from dementia, or just a lie by an evil and completely unscrupulous person. (And who is near certainly suffering from mental illness not directly related to his dementia, too.) But there was another very obvious episode during this tax-funded campaign rally (oops, that would be illegal) so-called Presidential Remarks.

Now, the press will try and spin that differently, but I’m right, okay?  The fake news.  (Applause.)  That’s a lot of people back there for a — like an 11 o’clock speech.  That’s a lot of people.  (Laughter.)  That’s a lot.  That’s like the Academy Awards during the day.  (Laughter.)

And for the record, the employees were paid to attend the speech:

President Donald Trump sought to take credit Tuesday for a major manufacturing complex in western Pennsylvania in his latest effort to reinvigorate the Rust Belt support that sent him to the White House. He was cheered on by fluorescent-vest-clad workers who were paid to attend by Shell, their employer, which is building the facility.

And on one more note, throwing this transcript at multiple readability calculators has it at the level of an eight- or nine-year old. Fourth grade. In comparison, feeding Mr. Trump's remarks to similar groups from the first months after he took his Oath of Office (in bad faith), back in early 2017, show he was consistently speaking at the level of a junior high-school student, the level of an eleven- to thirteen-year old.  Of course, this is not definitive, he may just be speaking down to the level of his typical Republican audience.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

In the wake of another rally where Mr. Trump ranted with Hitler-like incoherence and venom, in a fashion even more deranged than usual, the man who may hold the record for shortest tenure in the Trump administration weighs in with his two cents:
The Mooch Explains Why He Thinks Trump Is “Crazy,” “Narcissistic,” and a “Paper Tiger” Who Will Drop Out by March 2020

I think the guy is losing it, mentally. He has declining mental faculties; he’s becoming more petulant; he’s becoming more impetuous. Okay, you see just by the way he’s sweating, his body’s not doing well. It’s obviously not a guy that takes care of himself, right? And he doesn’t listen to anybody. And just think about this, okay? There’s no one—there’s no Jim Mattis; there’s no Gary Cohn; there’s no one to check him anymore. Whatever my differences were with General John Kelly, after he left, this thing has completely unspooled.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1162492589934817280

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

There is too much obvious craziness today to even sum up effectively.
https://twitter.com/tomgara/status/1164238002408833024

Also, if anyone has tried to watch Mr. Trump's speech, it's obvious that he's having a great deal of trouble pronouncing many of the words on his teleprompter.

He's done. (How long it takes the GOP to admit that, I don't know. But he won't be President in 2021, and probably won't even be on the ballot.)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Poland trip has been canceled, ostensibly for Hurricane Dorian.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-cancels-trip-to-poland-says-he-is-staying-in-the-us-to-monitor-hurricane-dorian/2019/08/29/1749da9c-ca9a-11e9-a1fe-ca46e8d573c0_story.html

I certainly can't say if the given reason is true or not, much like how any specific hurricane cannot be blamed on global warming. However, much like the pattern of hurricanes overall is changed by global warming, I expect we're going to see more of these cancellations as Mr. Trump fails.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1168550494161297409

The question was about this:
FARC rebels are calling for a new war. Does this spell the end of Colombia’s peace process?

The once and future rebels are angry that the Columbian government does not appear to be living up to the peace agreement - and former rebels keep getting murdered.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Fluctuations, Exacerbations, and Decline in Functioning — Where is Trump Headed?

In summary, there is currently a clear indication for comprehensive evaluation, but there is no observation or data that can definitively state that whatever Trump’s underlying pathology, the fluctuations we are seeing are not, quite possibly, consistent with exacerbations and recoveries that are all inherent to Trump’s long-standing baseline level of dysfunction. Of course, even going back to the older videos, despite some significant differences,

Yes, “Houston, we have a problem…”

No, the problem is not likely to improve or become any less dysfunction or any less dangerous.

We firmly believe that there is sufficient information to state that Trump is unfit to serve as POTUS. But until we have additional validated, objective clinical data, no person can offer any definitive diagnosis and we are all left in an ominous dark place as to Trump’s prognosis, and the dangers we face during the remainder of Trump’s time in office.

(Note: thread title being changed from "worsening dementia" to "mental deterioration". The linked rticle makes the excellent point that from the outside we cannot definitively know what is causing his deterioration, we can only observe it.)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump’s schedule shows a president with plenty of downtime this summer

President Trump’s daily Twitter feed in recent weeks has been a torrent of personal attacks, news commentary, weather reports, unfounded claims and congratulatory notes. But when it comes to his day job, the American people have seen little of him.

This week, aside from daily intelligence briefings and private lunches with Cabinet members, Trump has only one event on his public schedule — on Thursday he will award the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Lakers legend and NBA Hall of Famer Jerry West.

Last week, Trump also held just one public event — a Rose Garden ceremony to authorize creation of the U.S. Space Command, a reshuffling of military responsibilities for space operations. He began by announcing he was canceling a planned trip to Poland over Labor Day weekend and would remain in Washington to monitor Hurricane Dorian, which appeared to threaten Florida.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1169219626263359490

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

It’s all a show. The spotlight is always on him. It’s all intentional. And it’s down right hilarious at times. The guy is a showsman. You may not like his show, but a show is what it is.

I used to think that might be it, and still have friends who think so.

Now, I really don't. Trying to see planning or strategy into the actions of Mr. Trump's administration is pareidolia. Both his supporters and many of his opponents desperately want there to be something there, but there isn't. There is no there, there. It's just a nasty, mentally ill  old man at the center of a chaotic maelstrom of hate and short-term self-interest, with absolutely zero thought for anything else.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

'He's losing his s---': Trump's advisers are increasingly worried about his mental state following days of erratic behavior

"No one knows what to expect from him anymore," one former White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal conversations about the president, told Insider.

They added: "His mood changes from one minute to the next based on some headline or tweet, and the next thing you know his entire schedule gets tossed out the window because he's losing his s---."

"He's deteriorating in plain sight," one Republican strategist who's in frequent contact with the White House told Insider on Friday.

Asked why the president was obsessed with Alabama instead of the states that would actually be affected by the storm, the strategist said, "you should ask a psychiatrist about that; I'm not sure I'm qualified to comment."

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump speaks at HBCU:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1171498439651127296

He looks awful. (Perhaps its the light?) He's incoherent. (Not that he's ever particularly coherent.) And apparently he doesn't want any astronauts in his Space Force, today. (Maybe he just doesn't want any non-white astronauts?)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump Called Out ‘Where’s My Favorite Dictator?’ When Looking for Egyptian President at G7

During a reception at the Hotel du Palais in Biarritz, France, at the recent G7 summit, President Donald Trump was looking for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi and called out, “Where’s my favorite dictator?” according to the Wall Street Journal, citing several people who were in the room at the time.

According to the witnesses, Trump appeared to be joking, but, the Journal said, “his question was met by a stunned silence.”