Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

They're also way off the internal polls that we've been doing in the same ridings.

Is the NDP getting votes where they need them or are they just getting "respectable second" in a bunch of places?

[King of Kensington]

Hey could you post those numbers a third time Ontario Progressive?  I didn't see them.

[King of Kensington]

It's interesting to note that not one but two party leaders seem to be depriving the NDP of target seats that they "should" win: Etobicoke North and Guelph.

[King of Kensington]

Don't know but I've spoken to people with Green signs in the Harbord Village area of University-Rosedale who are actually voting NDP and just personally really like (as do I) the Green candidate, Tim Grant who is the former president of the residents association.

[King of Kensington]

Interestingly the old Beaches-Woodbine was a solid NDP riding since 1975, the north end, was Don Mills (East York plus but included areas now in Don Valley East and West) was more PC. Now, since about 2011 Beaches has trended OLP. in 2014 the NDP lost BEY because you can see a very noticeable N/S split; NDP winning the north, East York and the OLP winning the Beaches in the South. Still a bit swingy I feel, but there is a stronger OLP base then previously, due to just how expensive and NIMBY the area is here.

Yeah, if you look at incomes, transit usage and so on the Beaches looks more like North Toronto by the lake or something.  It's not "hipster" gentrification at all, but liberally minded accountants and the like (a lot of "better educated than paid" people).

The west end has more renters, a younger population and is hipster central - so more to the left politically.  More contract faculty or young journalists working for Vice or something.

[King of Kensington]

100% agree.  People should not justify support for the PCs by deluding themselves that adults in the room like Vic Fedeli or Christine Elliott will take charge.  Every candidate elected in every riding is the local apologist for Doug Ford.

[King of Kensington]

What are some pickups do you see major swings (say +20 points from 2014) in?

NDP pickups with biggest swing toward the party

Ottawa Centre
Spadina-Fort York
Toronto Centre
University-Rosedale (new riding)
maybe something in Brampton?

PC pickups with biggest swing toward the party

Etobicoke North
Vaughan-Woodbridge
maybe King-Vaughan (new riding)

[King of Kensington]

I'm calling for 65 seats and I feel I'm probably being a bit too generous to the NDP and the Liberals.  

I really really hope there's some leakage in the PC boat somewhere that deprives them of a majority.  Like those gung ho about the NDP in SW Ontario are right and they actually take some PC seats there (I don't think I have a single PC loss predicted).  Or the Soo goes NDP.  Or a surprise in somewhere like Burlington. Or they end up losing all these three ways in outer Toronto.  Some surprise in Mississauga.  Or like 10,000 voters in Vaughan that otherwise would have bolted to Ford decide that the idea of Del Duca as OLP leader is too good to pass up.  Or even Ford losing Etobicoke North (not bloody likely).  Come on Ontario...prove me wrong!