Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

I was just wondering, not that I'm making any allegations here, is there any evidence that Forum doesn't actually even conduct polls but just sells made up numbers to media outlets that are either roughly in line with credible pollsters or going where they think real polling numbers will go, but pushed out more to the extreme in order to be sensational.

I was polled by Forum by two days ago.

[King of Kensington]

The main reason why I don't think PC-NDP polarization will stick, even if the LIBs get destroyed us because this is Ontario. You need to win some parts of the city and the suburbs to win, and  those regions love their moderate leftists.

The 905 seems to be fatally weak for the NDP.  It's different from the Lower Mainland suburbs of Vancouver where the NDP is competitive.

Of course it's hard to see a Ford-type party being a "natural governing party" in Ontario, BC or even Alberta.

[King of Kensington]

More LIUNA riding polls:

http://liunalocal183.ca/News/ViewArticle/tabid/70/ArticleId/289/LIUNA-COMMISSIONED-POLLS-SHOW-WYNNE-DEL-DUCA-LIBERALS-PAYING-PRICE-FOR-ANTI-LIUNA-BUDGET.aspx

All 14 ridings show a lead for the Tories.

Aurora Oak Ridges Richmond Hill: PC 45%, NDP 27%, Lib 16%
Brampton Centre: PC 45%, NDP 33%, Lib 13%
Brampton North: PC 42%, NDP 30%, Lib 17%
Brampton South: PC 37%, NDP 34%, Lib 20%
Etobicoke North: PC 49%, NDP 19%, Lib 21%
Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas: PC 42%, NDP 38%, Lib 12%
Markham Thornhill: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Erin Mills: PC 42%, NDP 26%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Lakeshore: PC 49%, NDP 24%, Lib 19%
Oakville North Burlington: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 17%
Scarborough Centre: PC 48%, NDP 25%, Lib 15%
Scarborough North: PC 45%, NDP 21%, Lib 23%
Vaughan–Woodbridge: PC 54%, NDP 18%, Lib 19%
York Centre: PC 48%, NDP 24%, Lib 17%

I agree that the Liberals are losing big time in all those ridings.

[King of Kensington]

QM is hinting at some surprises in Bay of Quinte, Whitby and Elgin-Middlesex-London.

So maybe his polls are less "junky" now.

[King of Kensington]

I really, really doubt Ford loses in Etobicoke North.

First of all, this model does not take into account at all Ford's personal popularity in north Etobicoke.  Second, these seat projection models are kinda useless right now (yes, more useless than Mainstreet's riding polls!)

[King of Kensington]

Tooclosetocall's Liberal holdouts:

Don Valley East
Ottawa-Vanier
St. Paul's
Vaughan-Woodbridge (lol)

[King of Kensington]

I'm not so sure about that...Hudak's orthodox conservative platform was more appealing to the very wealthy than Ford's populist campaign in many respects.

[King of Kensington]

The Visible Minority numbers are interesting, although probably more suggestive given the sample (I'M JUST PUTTING THIS DISCLAIMER HERE TO PRE-EMPT THE PREDICATABLE "CRITCISM" ABOUT READING TOO MUCH INTO SUBSAMPLES).  

Ford is indeed competitive with them for a Conservative, but...the "narrative" that he is far, far more popular among VMs than everyone else doesn't hold true and that the NDP is in fact polling higher (though I suspect there's wide variation, too small to slice, within the various VM groups).  Wonder what this could mean for results in Scarborough and Brampton.

[King of Kensington]

Not shockers at all - except for the margins of victory they're showing.

[King of Kensington]

Hey Hatman, would you be able to combine the figures for City of Toronto and for the 905/GTA?

[King of Kensington]

It would be quite something to see both the "chattering class" and "champagne sipping elite" bastions of University-Rosedale and St. Paul's go NDP.  

(I guess the same dynamic is at work in Vancouver with the NDP holding Point Grey - but the NDP was already the dominant center-left party).

[King of Kensington]

Short of a Watergate type event, at this stage there are only 2 possible results of this election:

1. PC majority (probably in the 65-72 seat range)

2. A hung parliament with PC close to majority territory (58-62 seats)

The second option is only possible with two seemingly incompatible trends happening at the same time:

1. The NDP vote improving in a lot of two way races (Chatham Kent Lambton, Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas, Brantford Brant, Sarnia- Lambton), by drawing in former Liberal voters

AND

2. At the same time, Liberal vote strengthening to take a number of urban ridings in Toronto (Eglinton Lawrence, Willowdale, Etobicoke Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Don Valley North), Ottawa (Ottawa South, Orleans) and Peel (Mississauga Centre, Mississauga Maltin, Mississauga Lakeshore).

Unfortunately statistics (and smart money) makes the first option much more likely.

Unfortunately, get ready for a President Trump - Premier Ford summit .

1. HWAD is a very different seat from the others you mention (it's the "London West" of Hamilton, not a blue collar seat)

2. You've given up on Del Duca?

Sadly, I think you're right about the outcome though.

[King of Kensington]

The Toronto numbers from Ekos sound too good to be true.

[King of Kensington]

The Too Close To Call guy weighs in on the NDP's "905 problem" and what the NDP can do to win:

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/06/is-ndp-vote-really-that-inefficient.html

[King of Kensington]

On that note, I do believe it's possible there's a Corbyn-style result where the socialist/social democratic party overperforms expectations in part because of a massive surge in youth support and turnout that none of the pollsters picked up. Has there been an upswing in passionate/general support for Horwath among the youth population? I'd imagine her student loan policies are very attractive to them.

I don't see that happening.  There is no "Corbynesque" movement among the young people of Ontario or any Andrea-mania really (or anything resembling the excitement about Justin Trudeau in 2015, for that matter).  People are turning to the NDP more because they're tired of the Liberals and are willing to give the NDP a try.

[King of Kensington]

Hmmm...maybe the super-establishment (and disliked) Mulroney name is hurting Ford's "populist" appeal there (though I don't think it'll be particularly close).

But it's also the most working class seat in York Region (albeit only partially in York Region), so it makes sense that the NDP would be doing better there.

[King of Kensington]

It's a general guideline for punditry, but it's only speculation. We should know from the BC election that geographic disadvantages can prove to be non existent.

The Lower Mainland suburbs seem to be more working class than the 905 region.

[King of Kensington]

Question for everyone. IF the province wide popular vote is tied between the PCs And NDP (or at least very close) and IF the PCs are winning their traditional rural seats by huge margins and IF the PCs are also winning almost every seat in 905 by double digit margins and sometime high double digit margins....where is the NDP piling up so many votes to make the province wide popular vote so close? I know the ndp is strong in some urban seats but they don’t seem to be winning those seats by the huge margins the PCs are winning by in their strongholds

I think it's because the NDP is vastly increasing its vote precisely in places where it never won before and is becoming the "official opposition" almost everywhere.  

[King of Kensington]

Also, on Facebook I spotted the Libs posting a graphic showing that "only the Liberals can stop the NDP," i.e. begging PC voters to look past how much they hate the Liberals and bail them out to stop the socialist hordes, which, given the past 23 years of Ontario politics, may just be the most pathetic thing I've ever seen from a campaign

At least in 1990 there was an argument to be made that the Liberals were the party best positioned to "stop the NDP."

But it makes no sense whatsoever in today's context - because almost nobody will be voting Liberal to "stop the NDP."  Things must have sunk really low when they're trying to save St. Paul's from going NDP or something.

[King of Kensington]

How do you define working class?

The only 'blue collar' heavily unionized city in the Lower Mainland is New Westminster.  There are a lot of generally higher paid unionized 'grey collar' workers (technically skilled people working in both the public and private sector) in Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and the City of North Vancouver.

Don't want to get too much into semantics, but to me it includes more than manual workers.  It also includes most non-professional white collar workers (while understanding they're a bit different than the working class "proper").

But another way to slice it is that Van suburbs have lower incomes than GTA suburbs.

[King of Kensington]

LOL at the three-way race in University-Rosedale, Mainstreet.  Did they poll anybody south of Bloor or under 40?

[King of Kensington]

I don't think so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s8O8RZ2kdY

Snarky Youtube videos aside, the data says otherwise.

The GTA has huge sinkholes like York Region (an area of 1 million people where the NDP has no shot of winning a seat whatsoever) and Halton Region (another 500,000, same thing).  Significant parts of Mississauga too.

Van doesn't have anything like these high income outer suburbs with that kind of demographic and politcal influence.

The NDP holds the majority (18/33) of suburban Metro Vancouver) seats.  Even if the NDP got Horgan's share in Ontario I can't see the NDP getting close to half of the 905 seats.

It's not exactly clear where Van's outer suburbs begins - but I'd be inclined to exclude Burnaby, New Westminster, the North Shore and Richmond (transit Zone 1).  But even a majority of the next zone suburbs are NDP-held: 6 out of 9 provincial ridings in Surrey, 3 out of 4 Tri-Cities, a seat in Delta, both seats in the Maple Ridge area etc.

Average HH income, 905 ridings:

Oakville 177,283
Oakville North-Burlington  146,529
King-Vaughan  145,923
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill  137,070
Mississauga-Lakeshore  130,832
Vaughan-Woodbridge   129,041
Thornhill  126,546
Markham-Stouffville  125,201
Milton  124,592
Mississauga-Streetsville  122,872
Whitby  121,180
Pickering-Uxbridge  120,517
Newmarket-Aurora  119,948
Markham-Unionville  117,310
Burlington    115,369
Mississauga-Erin Mills    115,151
Brampton East   113,121
Ajax    112,569
Markham-Thornhill  107,402
Brampton North    105,877
Brampton West   105,587
Richmond Hill  104,043
Mississauga-Malton  95,560
Brampton South  89,278
Mississauga Centre  86,181
Brampton Centre  84,618
Mississauga East-Cooksville  83,574
Oshawa  79,552

Outer suburbs of Vancouver:

Delta   111,923
South Surrey-White Rock  110,072
Langley-Aldegrove  107,710
Port Moody-Coquitlam  102,479
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge   99,022
Fleetwood-Port Kells  98,857
Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam  94,205
Cloverdale-Langley City  93,893
Surrey-Newton  85,121
Surrey Centre  72,046

So I stand by my point.  Van's outer suburbs are more similar to Peel/Durham than York/Halton socioeconomically.

[King of Kensington]

Today's Mainstreet has some surprisingly close races in Willowdale and Etobicoke-Lakeshore - so maybe DeadFlagBlues is onto something (and yeah I know I look like a "hypocrite" for just dismissing their University-Rosedale poll).

[King of Kensington]

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Uh, West Vancouver, North Vancouver? Port Coquitlam, etc?

Vancouver has lots of high income outer burbs. North and West Van in particular have massively outsized influence. Richmond is even starting to take on those characteristics now.

North Shore, Burnaby/New Westminster and Richmond are really more inner than outer suburbs. But even if they were, the North Shore is not really big enough to be a serious impediment to the NDP's competitiveness province-wide.

[King of Kensington]

Not when you take transit into account and densities. West Van/North Van outside of Lonsdale area is right up in the mountains like PoCo, and Port Moody.

The North Shore may be rich but it has like 150,000 people.  Including the North Shore doesn't change my broader point.  It's not enough to seriously harm the NDP.

Both Toronto and Vancouver of course have wealthy, "establishment" areas.  It's really the outer ring that is different.  Van's are like Peel/Durham without York/Halton.

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The NDP would never win Vaughan or Aurora or Oakville regardless of the stance it takes on tolls.  
Also being weak in one region doesn't make the NDP a "regional party."  The BC Liberals are weak on Vancouver Island.