Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

Interestingly the PCs had the first leader of Italian origin - Patrick Brown (he is the nephew of Joe Tascona), which went unnoticed.  He never really played that up and never represented an "ethnic" constituency.  

And Fedeli I guess sorta counts, though he was only the interim leader briefly.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, I don't see how he's going to get a boost of 5000+ votes just because people think he might lead the Liberal Party that's about to get turfed.

[King of Kensington]

Among 905 seats, I would rank Oakville higher than Vaughan in terms of likelihood for surprise Liberal holdout (though neither is likely!)

[King of Kensington]

At least the "anti-poppy" candidate isn't running in Bay of Quinte!

[King of Kensington]

Is Whitby really that much more winnable than Ajax/Pickering?

[King of Kensington]

Yes.

FWIW, without leaking anything, our internal numbers show the NDP can win Whitby. Just sayin'.

BTW, my point wasn't to dismiss the NDP chances in Whitby.  But these three suburbs seem pretty similar demographically.  I guess it's Oshawa spillover/cultural influence?

(Yeah I know Whitby is in the Oshawa CMA but that doesn't mean much.  Commuting patterns show Whitby to be more of a Toronto suburb than an Oshawa one.  The Oshawa CMA only exists because CMAs can't be merged).

[King of Kensington]

BTW, is there any chance of the "but Hudak went too far" vote goes back to the PCs in large enough numbers to prevail in Oshawa or at least make it competitive?  I would think not given the surge but that vote returning seemed probable going into the election.

[King of Kensington]

CMAs can't be merged? Didn't Montreal just swallow up Saint-Jean in the last census?

I would imagine that Oshawa's influence on Whitby (even if it is less than Toronto) is playing a major factor.

CAs can be added to CMAs, but CMAs are retained for historic comparability.

https://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/92-195-x/2011001/geo/cma-rmr/def-eng.htm

[King of Kensington]

I wouldn't mind if they're able to keep a few "John Tory Liberal" seats.

[King of Kensington]

Today's Mainstreet riding polls are fantastic if you're a Conservative.  The idea of a rural orange wave across Southern Ontario a la '90 (which was far less probable in today's circumstances) looks like a pure fantasy at this point.  Also, the PCs are ahead in Kenora and Sault Ste. Marie.

It's very difficult to think of many PC seats that the NDP are poised to take.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP seems to be making major gains among urban voters, the young, the well educated, the "liberally minded" and to some extent ethnic minorities - constituencies the Liberals ate their lunch in during the last election.  Meanwhile they're competing with Ford for the working class vote, they're not anywhere close to "owning" it.

In other words, they are barely taking from the PC side at all.  This line about all these "traditional Tories appalled by Ford voting for Andrea Horwath" doesn't seem to be producing any meaningful gains.   I think there are very few voters who stuck with Hudak last time who have any problem voting for the party under Ford.  Like the "never Trump" Republicans, it didn't amount to much.  

[King of Kensington]

I agree.  Hudak ran on a hyper-austerity program loved by people in right-wing tanks and the Financial Post editorial board, but had no popular appeal whatsoever.

I'm not surprised that orthodox conservatism is less popular than Ford's pandering of "I'll save billions of dollars by getting rid of waste, not harm essential services and still provide lower taxes, cheap beer, subways etc."

[King of Kensington]

FYI, Kitchener South-Hespeler is a new seat but is notionally Liberal based on 2014 results that it would not be a gain from the PCs. Also, Durham is a Liberal seat currently

Durham was one of those "but Hudak went too far" losses.  Being in the Oshawa orbit (another "Hudak went too far" loss), they may not be able to regain the seat.  It could be an NDP pickup.  It's certainly not going Liberal again!

[King of Kensington]

Pollara:

NDP 43% (up 5)
PCs 32% (down 5)
Liberals 17% (down 1)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

This is real. People are saying NDP = No Doug Party!!!

If true, there goes that "structural advantage"!

[King of Kensington]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

[King of Kensington]

Seat projectors are almost useless in this climate.  I'd be more confident in the Liberals winning the Thunder Bay seats than Woodbridge.

[King of Kensington]

LIUNA poll of Woodbridge has the PCs at over 50% and Del Duca fighting for second place with the NDP!

http://www.liuna.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=77:ontario-election-vaughn-woodbridge-poll-by-campaign-research&catid=8&Itemid=106

Even with the small sample size, this poll would have to be spectacularly wrong for Del Duca to prevail.

It's not that surprising really.  First, the Liberals are dead in 905.  And the federal Conservatives got 44% of the vote there during the 2015 red wave, so it's not as if there isn't a sizable small-"c" conservative vote.

Plus, it's a very "Fordian" riding.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals are going to lose every riding in the 905, Peel, Durham and York. I can't see any seat they'd win?. My only prediction was Sousa in Mississauga-Lakeshore, but sounds like he's trailing.

I think the only people who are voting "Del Duca for Liberal leader" are the diehard Liberal partisans.

[King of Kensington]

Today's polls for Brampton Centre and Malton are very disappointing from an NDP point of view.  They haven't really moved from 2014.

[King of Kensington]

So who is leading there - PC or Liberals?

PCs 9 points ahead of NDP.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP isn't "hammering" the PCs in SW Ontario at all.  It's very close.  What's happening is the NDP is driving the Liberals out of K-W and London.   

Getting "respectable second" in York-Simcoe and BGOS while under-perfomring in Brampton does not bid well for the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

Quito Maggi is hinting at some surprising results from his polls in Whitby and Barrie tomorrow.  He probably means Whitby, unless some sort of "Patrick Brown" effect is hurting the PCs in Barrie.

[King of Kensington]

Of course the thing about constituency polling is that... cont. p. 384

Thank you for correcting us, yet again. 

[King of Kensington]

Not a Liberal partisan but am predicting that, assuming the Liberals are higher than 22% provincially, Del Duca retains his seat.

Not so sure about that - the federal Liberals got 25% in Ontario in 2011 and they still got creamed in Vaughan.

My point is - I would be surprised if even 5% of voters will put the question of who will succeed Kathleen Wynne as leader of the OLP into consideration when they vote.  And all of those people would be diehard Liberals.

[King of Kensington]

I'd really like to see polls for Peterborough and Brantford.