Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

I think it's fair to characterize the Niagara region as "industrial/post-industrial" even though it has a touristy aspect and an agricultural aspect as well.   As adma pointed out, it's the "industrial" character that has made the Niagara region an area with a solid NDP base in the first place.

[King of Kensington]

Keep in mind too that the municipality of Niagara Falls ON covers a much larger physical area than Niagara Falls NY as it annexed a bunch of townships that are suburban in character.  Those are the "nice" parts, the "inner city" isn't that appealing at all.

Not saying it's as bad as the NY side, but it's important to compare "apples."

[King of Kensington]

So it sounds like the NDP is targeting Ottawa South.  Of the pre-amalgamation seats, there is no obvious #2 target after Ottawa Centre (they're all pretty demographically similar in terms of education and incomes) so I'm guessing it's based on the quality of the candidate.

[King of Kensington]

LOL at the NDP winning Pickering-Uxbridge and Erin Mills while the PCs win St. Paul's!

[King of Kensington]

LOL at the NDP winning Pickering-Uxbridge and Erin Mills while the PCs win St. Paul's!

And the Liberals somehow holding a seat in Vaughan

Maybe the "but...Italians! Del Duca! Seat projector!" people are right.  Who knows?  This election has been full of surprises.

[King of Kensington]

NDP is at 30% in Eastern Ontario if the Ipsos poll is correct.  Would that mean anything beyond Ottawa Centre and Kingston or would it just result in a lot of wasted votes?

[King of Kensington]

It also shows the NDP is behind the PCs only 43-40 in central ON. As someone who grew up in Barrie the NDP being that close in the region seems weird.

I think Central Ontario = "L" postal codes outside of Durham/Halton/Peel/York.

[King of Kensington]

Bay of Quinte is another possibility. Though I'd consider it and Peterborough to be in "Central Ontario".

Central Ontario is the most ill defined region in Ontario.

[King of Kensington]

Also Ford underperforms among the wealthy compared to a more generic PC leader.

[King of Kensington]

Your skepticism is well taken.  The PCs have a clearer path to victory than the NDP right now, in my opinion.

905 beyond Brampton/Malton/Oshawa is tough.  Any residual Ford popularity in Scarborough hurts the NDP too (I think every seat in Scarborough except Agincourt is potentially winnable but Ford throws a monkey wrench into that).

And SW Ontario is not ripe for a "Rae '90" type result where vote-splitting on the right allowed them to win in some crazy places  They may drive the Liberals out of the cities but they may not end up defeating any PC MPPs at all.

[King of Kensington]

The result last time was Lib 38.7, PC 31.2, NDP 23.7. In polling terms this translates as 39, 31 and 24. If we assume - for the sake of argument - that the Ipsos poll is reflected on election day then the Liberals would be down 16pts, the PCs up 5pts and the NDP up 13pts. These changes won't be uniform - when there is general movement of this sort then parties typically gain most where they have the most to gain. For the party losing shedloads of votes its a bit more complex - typically a combination of losing most where they have the most to lose plus total collapse in certain hitherto middling performing seats. This would be very much one of those 'all that is solid melts into air' electoral situations in which, frankly, seat-by-seat projections are worth approximately as much the Venezuelan bolivar...

It would have been interesting to seen people's predictions for Ontario in 1990, or the 1993 federal election.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP has to do better in Toronto.  I can't see rural and "rurban" Ontario making up for underperformance in Toronto.

The NDP really had a "perfect storm" situtation that allowed them to win about 10 rural and rurban seats in 1990.  Those conditions aren't there today.  Unless the Trillum Party really takes off or something.

[King of Kensington]

Of course we don't know entirely or exactly what the Ford effect (if any) will be particularly - for good or ill he's not his brother.

We won't know until election day.  Doug Ford running municipally is not the same as local candidates running under the PC banner led by Doug Ford .  I don't know how much his personal popularity transcends the general aversion to the PCs in working class districts of outer Toronto.  

[King of Kensington]

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

Very true.  From an NDP point of view, it's actually better if these "John Tory Liberal" ridings stay red.

[King of Kensington]

Well, Etobicoke-Lakeshore does have some NDP history. Not in Willowdale, though. Interestingly, Olivia Chow did a lot better in Willowdale than the NDP usually does. It is an area that is seeing an influx of people moving in to live in the Yonge Street corridor.

Willowdale was in fact one of the few PC seats in Toronto in 1990 - as a strong showing by the NDP allowed the PC to come up the middle.

Lakeshore indeed used to elect NDP MPPs - and the NDP won big there in 1990.  Though the riding boundaries are rather different now and stretches up to include the wealthy Kingsway area.

[King of Kensington]

Re Hudak, more so in 2011 than 2014--his civil-servant-bashing '14 campaign actually helped him in wealthier polls (check comparative polling maps in those years for proof)

Hudak's 2014 progam had a lot of appeal at the Financial Post editorial board, in right-wing think tanks and on Bay Street and had virtually no "populist" appeal whatsoever.  It was a completely austere, orthodox conservative program with few specific pitches to the "middle class."

According to Sid Ryan (who was head of the OFL at the time), only 19% of union members voted PC in 2014.

This is why I'm skeptical of claims that all these Hudak '14 voters are ripe for voting for Andrea Horwath's NDP now.  He never had the swing voters to begin with and pretty much took them to the floor.

[King of Kensington]

^ Parry Sound-Muskoka is considered Northern Ontario though (to the chagrin of many!), where riding populations are smaller.

[King of Kensington]

Re Hudak, more so in 2011 than 2014--his civil-servant-bashing '14 campaign actually helped him in wealthier polls (check comparative polling maps in those years for proof)

Bit of a dead cat bounce, but yes, that's so. I do wonder whether there's a chance of the Ontario Liberals ending up in a situation to the LibDems here in 2017; i.e. credible (even good in some cases) results in seats with heavy concentrations of higher professionals, total disaster everywhere else. I also wonder whether the extremely suburban Ford will do quite as well as Hudak in the countryside - Hudak era PC maps stink of cow sh!t after all...

I hope so!  I think they'll probably prevail in St. Paul's and hopefully retain a concentration in the "John Tory Liberal" ridings of Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence and Willowdale.

[King of Kensington]

I can't see a swing like the not having the NDP pick up the low fruit from 2014 from the PCs and Liberals.

There isn't much low hanging fruit on the PC side, remember that even if the PC numbers have tapered off they are still well ahead of Hudak '14.

[King of Kensington]

Right, but the gains are from the OLP, especially in suburban Toronto. In places where the OLP did poorly in 2014, like SW Ontario, the PCs are not going to be seeing similar gains because there's less OLP vote for them to gain from to begin with.

There isn't likely going to be seat gains for the PCs in SW Ontario, but they're likely to keep what they have.  The NDP will almost certainly succeed in driving the Liberals out of Waterloo region and London, but defeating PC MPPs in the region is harder.

[King of Kensington]

I can see, based on polling which has the PCs stagnant (again referred previously, using Ipsos SW), PC seats that I see going NDP, even if they are the opposition are:

Chatham-Kent-Leamington (this new boundary gains all NDP polls from Essex)
Sarnia-Lambton

If trends continue, and the PCs start to slip, which is completely realistic:

Huron-Bruce
Perth-Wellington
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Kitchener-Conestoga
Oxford
Elgin-Middlesex-London
** everyone of these seats saw a decrease in both PC and OLP vote and Increase for the NDP in 2014, and I expect that overall trend to continue.

Well I admire your optimism and I hope you're right.  But I think there may be more of a urban-rural split than a "universal swing" model suggests, and I don't think the conditions are there for a Rae '90 type result in rural/rurban SW Ontario.

[King of Kensington]

Maybe Etobicoke Centre will be a "Lib Dem" type holdout.

[King of Kensington]

It would be kinda hilarious to see the NDP sweep SW Ontario and the PCs sweep Scarborough.

[King of Kensington]

Here's Hatman's list again, to spare everyone else having to look back 10 pages.

Well, it would involve a near (or complete) whipe out of the Liberal Party, but here are 63 seats (what is needed for a majority) the NDP could win. Some of these are a bit far fetched, but one has to suspend their disbelief a bit if this is going to be possible.

1. Ottawa Centre
2. Ottawa—Vanier
3. Bay of Quinte
4. Kingston and the Islands
5. Peterborough—Kawartha
6. Durham
7. Oshawa
8. Brampton Centre
9. Brampton East
10. Brampton North
11. Brampton South
12. Brampton West
13. Mississauga—Malton
14. Scarborough Centre
15. Scarborough—Guildwood
16. Scarborough North
17. Scarborough—Rouge Park
18. Scarborough Southwest
19. Don Valley East
20. Beaches—East York
21. Davenport
22. Parkdale—High Park
23. Spadina—Fort York
24. Toronto Centre
25. Toronto—Danforth
26. University—Rosedale
27. Humber River—Black Creek
28. York South—Weston
29. Hamilton Centre
30. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
31. Hamilton Mountain
32. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
33. Niagara Centre
34. Niagara Falls
35. St. Catharines
36. Brantford—Brant
37. Cambridge
38. Guelph
39. Huron—Bruce
40. Kitchener Centre
41. Kitchener South—Hespeler
42. Perth—Wellington
43. Waterloo
44. Chatham-Kent—Leamington
45. Essex
46. London—Fanshawe
47. London North Centre
48. London West
49. Sarnia—Lambton
50. Windsor—Tecumseh
51. Windsor West
52. Algoma—Manitoulin
53. Mushkegowuk—James Bay
54. Nickel belt
55. Sault Ste. Marie
56. Sudbury
57. Timiskaming—Cochrane
58. Timmins
59. Kenora—Rainy River
60. Kiiwetinoong
61. Thunder Bay—Atikokan
62. Thunder Bay—Superior North
63. Toronto—St. Paul's

[King of Kensington]

I'd really like to see a poll with the NDP with a comfortable lead in the City of Toronto.  Scarborough "should" be going NDP but Ford makes that harder.