Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[King of Kensington]

Well it's time for me to get out of the prediction business.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals did a much better Obama impression than the NDP ever could.

[King of Kensington]

Markham-Unionville (+4) Mostly Chinese suburb of Toronto. Tories have done well with the Chinese lately.

Tories up 4 points in Scarborough-Agincourt also.

[King of Kensington]

There are NDP strongholds in downtown Toronto, but when one party is beating the other by about 30% in the province, well...

Downtown Toronto wasn't so great for the NDP.  The NDP strength is more in the west and east ends of inner Toronto.

[King of Kensington]

Popular vote by region, Quebec:

Eastern Quebec

Liberals 69,273 29.8%
NDP 60,029 25.8%
Conservatives 54,125 23.3%
BQ 39,739 17.1%

Cote-Nord and Saguenay

Liberals 63,411 26.5%
NDP 59,458 24.8%
BQ 57,332 23.9%
Conservatives 55,007 23%

Quebec City Region

Conservatives 101,232 35%
Liberals 77,313 26.7%
NDP 62,283 21.5%
BQ 40,385 14%

Central Quebec

Liberals 141,558 26.9%
BQ 131,178 25%
NDP 131,007 24.9%
Conservatives 108,824 20.7%

Eastern Townships

Liberals 155,340 31.9%
NDP 126,491 26%
Conservatives 113,105 23.2%
BQ 80,007 16.4%

Monteregie

Liberals 229,488 35.4%
NDP 170,173 26.3%
BQ 157,873 24.4%
Conservatives 70,192 10.8%

Montreal and Laval

Liberals 533,505 46.7%
NDP 275,287 24.1%
BQ 159,098 13.9%
Conservatives 139,711 12.2%

Laurentides

BQ 104,890 29.8%
Liberals 104,108 29.6%
NDP 97,655 27.8%
Conservatives 36,736 10.4%

Outaouais

Liberals 115,801 51%
NDP 59,564 26.4%
Conservatives 23,407 10.3%
BQ 22,942 10.1%

North

NDP 33,414 39.7%
Liberals 25,827 30.7%
BQ 16,049 19%
Conservatives 6,636 7.9%

[King of Kensington]

And Ontario:

National Capital Region

Liberals 281,664 53%
Conservatives 157,510 29.6%
NDP 74,451 14%

Eastern Ontario

Liberals 202,326 43.8%
Conservatives 186,378 40.4%
NDP 51,641 11.2%

Central Ontario

Conservatives 197,875 42.5%
Liberals 183,145 39.3%
NDP 62,423 13.4%

Northern Ontario

Liberals 165,955 42.9%
NDP 115,342 29.8%
Conservatives 89,453 23.1%

Southwestern Ontario

Conservatives 501,549 38.2%
Liberals 488,075 37.2%
NDP 263,715 20.1%

Hamilton-Niagara

Liberals 184,631 38%
Conservatives 165,163 34%
NDP 117,043 24%

City of Toronto

Liberals 644,768 52.7%
Conservatives 331,728 27.1%
NDP 230,078 18.8%

905

Liberals 773,227 46.4%
Conservatives 657,523 39.5%
NDP 169,862 10.2%

[King of Kensington]

And for BC...

Vancouver Island

NDP 188,076 39.9%
Liberals 100,548 21.3%
Conservatives 99,943 21.2%
Greens and others 82,953 17.6%

City of Vancouver

Liberals 146,367 46.7%
NDP 88,137 28.1%
Conservatives 68,504 21.8%

Rest of Lower Mainland

Liberals 415,581 40.7%
Conservatives 333,445 32.7%
NDP 180,676 17.7%

Interior

Conservatives  145,222  36.7%
Liberals  125,884  31.8%
NDP  108,725  27.5%

North

Conservatives  57,683  38.7%
NDP  44,196  29.6%
Liberals  37,992  25.5%

[King of Kensington]

It'll be a long time before another 1958, 1984 or 2011 type situation.

[King of Kensington]

Thornhill = Calgary with black hats and yarmulkes

[King of Kensington]

Did the Tories get over 50% of the vote in any Ontario county?

Lanark?  SDG?  Elgin?

[King of Kensington]

Beaches-East York was historically stronger for the NDP than Parkdale-High Park, but over the last decade P-HP has become a stronger NDP area.

[King of Kensington]

Excluding advance and special ballots (e-day only), here's the Tory Top 10:

51.9% - Lanark
50.9% - Huron
49.3% - Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry
48.4% - Elgin
47.3% - Leeds and Grenville
45.8% - Dufferin
45.6% - Grey
45.5% - Oxford
45.5% - York
44.7% - Halton

Interesting that Hudak did better in Eastern Ontario than Harper last time.

[King of Kensington]

In Leeds-Grenville?

[King of Kensington]

Polling Extremes:

Best and Worst for each party



Conservative:

99.54% Poll #13 in Peace River-Westlock (out of 216 votes, 1 voted Green )
99.12% Poll #8 in  Peace River-Westlock  (out of 227 votes, 2 voted Liberal)

20 Polls where they got over 95% of the vote.
 - Peace River - Westlock, Battle River - Crowfoot, Bow River, Fort McMurray, Grand Prairie - Mackenize, Lakeland (Alberta)
 - Carlton Trail - Eagle Creek (Saskatchewan)

Are these polls populated by a certain religious group?  Mennonites?  Mormons?
 

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Orthodox Jews, obviously.  Pretty sure that's in the subdivision that was actually built specifically for them.

     










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[King of Kensington]

Really? Judging from google street view, the area looks to be your typical upper-middle class suburb.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/gwsbtbe