Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[King of Kensington]

Funny how Alberta is one of the bright spots for the NDP nowadays.

[King of Kensington]

My feeling is that the NDP surge will be more muted than people are expecting, this time around at least.  They'll probably win 10-15 seats in Edmonton, along with Lethbridge-West and possibly Calgary-Fort, which will bring them to official opposition status.  The next election (in 2019, most likely) will be one to watch, as the presence of a strong, progressive official opposition may cause the progressive vote to coalesce around the NDP.   

Furthermore, for the NDP  to break through in places like Calgary, it will probably take more than a single election.  Remember, the NDP's citywide popular vote in Calgary was less than 5% in Calgary in 2012.

I agree with this assessment.

[King of Kensington]

Graves says he's releasing a poll shortly; it looks "very good" for the NDP and "very bleak" for PCs and WR.

[King of Kensington]

Voice of Franky reports:

NDP  39.6%
PC  23%
WR  23%
ALP  6.7%
ABP  4.6%

Poll to be released tomorrow.

[King of Kensington]

Obviously there's a fair margin of error when looking demographically, but I'm a bit surprised to see there's almost no difference between PC voters and Wildrose voters in educational attainment.