The Jewish vote: 5 types

[King of Kensington]

An assessment of the so-called "Jewish vote" in the US, from Professor Steven Windmueller:

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http://www.jewishjournal.com/thewindreport/item/the_great_jewish_divide_competing_voices_and_distinct_voting_patterns_20120

I don't know much about the voting patterns of "Southern and Mid-Western Jews."  Of the remaining four, the first two are solidly Republican and the other two are solidly Democratic.

I'm guessing there is another category that is sort of affluent suburban, Reform or Conservative, not particularly "liberal", strongly pro-Israel but are totally turned off by the religious right and Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin types and vote Democratic not in spite of an alternative, but because of the alternative.  Basically they'd call themselves "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" - may have voted for Reagan but swung heavily Democrat in 1992.  Obviously this group overlaps most with the more "right-wing" elements of the "urban elite" category.

[King of Kensington]

I would guess the most liberal Jews live in California and New England.  

Midwestern Jews for instance I would think probably vote more Democratic in presidential elections than New York Jews (given the big Orthodox and immigrant elements).  But New York would likely have more of the "red diaper" types too.

[King of Kensington]

Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin and their ilk are a major turnoff for Jews.   They won't vote Republican no matter how pro-Israel they are. 

[King of Kensington]

Well, there are quite a few who do. You can find a Jewish Republican voter. The question is: where are Jewish Republican politicians.

Obviously yes - religious and immigrant Jews. But the religious right and populist demagogues have made the GOP unappealing to moderate Jews from 1992 on.   In 1980 Reagan got about 40% of the Jewish vote.  A conservative Party of the British, Canadian or Australian Liberal type party (particularly not with a Tony Abbott type at the helm) would be more competitive with US Jews (the Southern and Midwestern Jews would probably fit in this category, and suburban voters generally).

I'm Canadian and I don't think we have an equivalent to "Southern and Midwestern Jews" but we certainly have the other four.  My own background is a mix of "red diaper" and "urban elite."

[King of Kensington]

Well, we´ve had this discussion many times before here. There was a poster some time ago who tried to demonstrate that the religious and the Russians are now in majority, which is, obviously, bullocks. But neither should we forget about them, and they ARE growing as a proportion of the Jewish population in the US.

They may be approaching a majority in NYC, but not in the US as a whole.

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So in other words it took 20 years to recover from the collapse in the GOP vote.  But to a large extent this just mirrors a pattern in affluent suburbs of major cities swinging away from the GOP - i.e. why states like CA and NJ used to be competitive but are now Democrat strongholds in presidential elections.

The Orthodox/FSU share of the Jewish population was also considerably smaller in 1980 than it is today.

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That's a very good point.  If the GOP is so "Jewish friendly" why do they attract so few Jewish candidates?  Demographically, most of the "Jewish vote" isn't winnable because too many subsets just won't vote for them.  Though the fact that it's so beholden to the religious right is certainly a big factor.

[King of Kensington]

It would be interesting to do the "types" of Jewish voter for NYC neighborhoods (and other places).  Obviously the immigrant and religious Jews are in Brooklyn and Queens - (i.e. Brighton Beach for Russian Jews, Borough Park and Williamsburg for Hasidic Jews, etc.)  Manhattan would be dominated by the "urban elite."  Though there's several "red diaper" or socialist Jews as well - probably more on the Upper West Side than anywhere else, though they'd be outnumbered by the "urban elite liberal types.  Others and more modern-day "radical chic" would be found in Lower Manhattan and Brownstone Brooklyn. 

[King of Kensington]

Very much so.  I also remember reading that Romney over 90% of the vote in the heavily Syrian Jewish precincts.

[King of Kensington]

Here's my attempt at NYC:

Southern and Midwestern:  N/A

Immigrant:  Brighton Beach, Gravesend, Forest Hills/Rego Park

Religious:  Borough Park, Williamsburg, Flatbush, Rockaway

Red diaper:  Upper West Side, Lower Manhattan, Brownstone Brooklyn

Urban elite:  UES, UWS, Lower Manhattan, Brownstone Brooklyn, Riverdale

[King of Kensington]

I think you're right to say that this is a general category, but I'd actually say that this category more or less fits under "Southern and Midwestern Jews" given the description in the article, and that the name "Southern and Midwestern Jews" was just a poor choice.

What about say, Nassau County?