Israel 2009

[M]

 Smith-Ynet poll:

 

    * Kadima 28
    * Likud 26
    * Yisrael Beiteinu 16
    * Labor 14
    * Shas 10
    * United Torah Judaism 6
    * Hadash 5
    * Jewish Home 4
    * United Arab List – Ta'al 4
    * Meretz 4
    * National Union 3

 

[M]

kadima-likud-yb-meretz could b a poss, if lieberman focuses on civil marriage, easier conversions, and land exchange as part of final negotiations, rather than his absurd loyalty oath.

[M]

I've spoken to people in the Jerusalem municipality about this. You have to understand that West Jerusalem never had an Arab minority like Haifa or Acre, so the Jerusalem Arabs are all Palestinians from East Jerusalem. This was an annexed area, and my best understanding is that East Jerusalemites could register for citizenship if they chose to (standing offer), but very, very few do. However, they are allowed to vote in Palestinian elections. Theoretically, at least, an East Jerusalemite Arab could vote in both elections.

You assume Arabs will vote for "Arab" parties. Many Bedouins vote for Likud. Arabs account for around 35% of Labor's vote as well.

(and other, varying claims on the issue by other posters)

The Haaretz thingy Al linked to allows at least some deductions...

80% of Bedouins vote United Arab List. Most of the remainder votes Balad.

Hadash is mostly the party of urban Arabs - it took a majority of the vote in Nazareth (the largest almost exclusively Arab city) - while UAL is stronger in rural parts. Rural (non-Bedouin) parts are also where mainstream parties get their Arab votes from: Parties other than Hadash, Balad and UAL combined took 8% of the vote in Nazareth, 12% in "non-jewish communities" of 20-50k inhabitants, but 19% in those of 10-20k and 28% in those under 10k - including 9% for Labor and 6% for Kadima. Of course, there are some Arabs living outside of "non-jewish communities", but the number seems to be negligible (Arabs in Jerusalem do not appear to vote - I'm not sure whether (m)any of them have Israeli citizenship?)
 
A statistical note on theoretical Arab electoral strength... Arabs are 20% of Israel's population (using the official definition of that, which excludes "temporary foreign workers" - almost 200k of them - includes East Jerusalem, and includes the 270k Israelis in the West Bank. And of course excludes Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. But not in East Jerusalem.)
However, the Arab population is quite young. Using the best figures I could find, Arabs should make up about 14.4% of the voter pool. From what I've seen claimed (but cannot confirm - too varied sources), Arab turnout was about 50% and turnout across the country 65%. Taking those figures at face value gives about 13 seats determined by Arab votes this year... but that may have to be corrected if East Jerusalem Arabs are not citizens. Assuming (for simplicity's sake) that all Arabs in East Jerusalem are non-citizens, and that their age structure is the same as the citizen Arabs', we get 17.3% Arab citizens, 12.3% Arab eligible voters, and 11-12 seats determined by Arab votes.
Take your pick.

[M]

Netanyahu wants to be Prime Minister.

This has to be stated?

[M]

Netanyahu (Likud) - PM
Livni (Kadima) - Foreign
Mofaz (Kadima) - Defense
Lieberman (YB) - Finance

Shas and other parties may also join or support the coalition from outside.

The priorities of this government would be the Gaza situation; both Netanyahu and Lieberman have said they want to finish the job, i.e. regime change by force.

[M]

It seems Baraks days as head of Labor are numbered, Amir Peretz has already announced he's challenging for leadership and Barak will probably lose regardless of who challenges (of course, as this is Israel, he will probably be back sometime).

He may well lose. But not to Peretz.