http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/IA031121demcaucus.pdfDean has a mega-lead according to this poll, but he does not have the state for sure. For starters, the second poll results, where Dean has only a five point lead and 6% undecided, are probably more relaible. And of course it's a caucus, so a lot could not be decided for sure until election night.
Still, Dean's history has been gain, gain, gain, without slowing down yet, and he has another month and a half. Dean is popular among dem caucus voters for being a bush basher, and bashing Dean for bashing Bush is likely to be a poor strategy.
My bet? Yeah, it'll be Dean alright. He's already clinched NH. On Feb 3, he'll win all the states except maybe SC, and then sweep to nomination.
If he loses Iowa, he'll still probably be nominated, but it becomes a lot less certain. The anti-Dean'll have to rally to an unlikely leader- Gephardt, Clark, or Edwards- if they want the nomination. But even this scenario only works if Dean loses Iowa. short of that, he clinches the nomination in mid January.
Only Lieberman would have a chance at the general election, and he'll never be nominated. He's too decent- hell, I like him, and I'm a Republican! Reminds a lot of us of Scoop Jackson. Gephardt, Edwards, and maybe Clark would lose respectably. Howard Dean is a leader of lemmings, and he will lead his party staright over a cliff. I'm talking Bush winning 45+ states, GOP net gain of 4-7 seats in the Senate, maybe as many as 20+ in the House.
Hillary would watch such a situation with dismay, as she needs a party that is only slightly losing to lead to triumph in '08. The part, with many of its moderates knocked out (the vulnerables in congress are in conservative and split states) may move further to the left. At the same time, the Greens may be about to nab city hall in Frisco, and Evan Bayh, Zell Miller, John Breaux, and others will grow increasingly uncomfortable with their party's stances.
What we may see in the next decade is a complete reordering of American politics. By the time the dust settles, you may not recognize the Dem party- it may have a new name, or have been dissolved and replaced completely. Even stranger things could be around the bend.
What's really weird is that I think several socially liberal issues are nationally popular right now. But the Dem campaign is like Dewey in '44 saying, "We are not at war with Germany. Only Japan attacked us. Hitler is evil, but it's not really our problem, is it? The President has no exit strategy from Europe. When will our troops be pulled from Germany? Why do we need to build democracy there? What did Hitler ever do to us anyway? I will act as if we are not even at war, and bring back the glory days of peace and prosperity under Herbert Hoover."
