The Only Real Issue That Hurts Republicans in 2004

[M]

Unemployment's down to 5.6 and shrinking. Not as low as people thought it might go, but that's good because the Fed won't mess with the bond rate. The economy is on the way up. Eventually we should reach a boom, probably early next year.

The issue I'm most worried about is WMD. Bush is now saying that we might have been wrong in Iraq, but he didn't do it purposefully if so, and there were still perfectly good reasons to go to war (better ones actually, Saddam supported terror, was a monstrous dictator who had to go as soon as possible, and his fall could spur a democratic outburst acroos the Mideast.) This is actually a decent argument and if it is the major issue, Bush will win reelection. BUT though it is not a real political problem, it could be a policy problem. Say the ayatollahs are on the verge of acquiring a warhead. Bush says we must consider military options, and the media and the libs will go, "fool me twice, shame on me". Effectively it could make it politically impossible for the USA to save the Middle East from becoming so much radioactive slag.

[M]

Sure, you're right it's a problem now. But firms historically start hiring bigtime in the spring. And the best indicator is how people feel about the economy in the future. For the first time in a long time, the economic is looking rosy to most Americans. BTW, current unemployment is the lowest since October 2001, to give you some perspective.)