Sam Spade's 2008 Presidential Election/Primary Prediction Thread

[M]

Astonishingly enough, I notice I haven't posted in over a year (still reading, o/c) but just had to say, Sam, IMHO your predictions are spot on.

I have a few quibbles: Are you sure that even a middling-impressive Thompson run doesn't take the non-Florida South from Rudy? On the other end of the equation, if Thompson is that weak, why do you rank him so high above Romney (and I agree about Romney's low national competitiveness)?

[M]

Again, I am in pretty general agreement- especially that Romney is much more serious now, and Thompson in decline.

Tiny nitpick: go ahead and remove Tommy from your rankings.

Who do you see potentially upsetting Romney in Iowa?

[M]

Since I tend to enjoy your thought process:

Why are you so down on Romney - in another thread, even ranking him below McCain?

What do you make of the snowball effect from Iowa and possibly other states? Not a significant factor in this round, if so, why?

If Thompson's shot, why is he ahead of Huck?

What's your hypothetical McCain scenario? What's your hypothetical Richardson scenario?

[M]

AND - do you really feel that Obama has a better shot at his nomination than any non-Giuliani Republican does at theirs?