Tim Saler - 2008 GOP Presidential Primary Projection.

[Akno21]

Guliani won't do very well. There could be sort of a primary within the primary, Guliani/McCain for moderates, Santorum/Frist for Conservatives.

[Akno21]

Plus, the establishment will likely be on his side.

Do you really think that? Are you sure that the GOP will nominate the most high-profile far-right politician perhaps in the country. Just as the Democrats don't want to be seen as the party of hardcore liberals is that really the direction the party will take?

Secondly, even if the establishment is on his side, will the GOP really nominate someone, although eloquent and perhaps with good base appeal,  who does not appeal to moderates, independents and other such swing voters.....?

Bush won even though Kerry won the moderate and independent voters. Santorum will do very well among the religous right (duh), and they will come out in large numbers for him.

[Akno21]

Plus, the establishment will likely be on his side.

Do you really think that? Are you sure that the GOP will nominate the most high-profile far-right politician perhaps in the country. Just as the Democrats don't want to be seen as the party of hardcore liberals is that really the direction the party will take?

Secondly, even if the establishment is on his side, will the GOP really nominate someone, although eloquent and perhaps with good base appeal,  who does not appeal to moderates, independents and other such swing voters.....?

Santorum isn't far right. The establishment is happy that Santorum has been loyal to the party.

Santorum can win. Whether or not you like him you have to admit he is electable.

1. Santorum isn't far right!!!!! Where exactly do you place him then? He's certainly not anywhere near the McCain/Snowe wing of the party.

2. Yes Santorum is a good politician, a good speaker, and has charisma. He is nominatable (is that a word) BUT he is clearly to far removed from middle America to be elected President of the United States. 


Yes he will win the Billy Graham/Jerry Falwell types who may well support him in droves, but the point is, if the Democrats run anybody moderate or even a Kerry type then Santorum won't stand a chance. I just can't see how Mr and Mrs John Q. Taxpayer will support someone with such hardline politics.

And before you say it, yes his politics are hardline... Anyone who compares gays to those who engage in animal sex gets a cross in my book.

Santorum's policies are basically the same as Bush's, except he's more outspoken on social issues. There really aren't that many Bush states that Santorum would lose, Nevada would be the best bet. The only Democrats who can beat Santorum are Bayh, some other moderate yet charismatic person, or a person who could carry Florida (Bill Nelson).

[Akno21]

Plus, the establishment will likely be on his side.

Do you really think that? Are you sure that the GOP will nominate the most high-profile far-right politician perhaps in the country. Just as the Democrats don't want to be seen as the party of hardcore liberals is that really the direction the party will take?

Secondly, even if the establishment is on his side, will the GOP really nominate someone, although eloquent and perhaps with good base appeal,  who does not appeal to moderates, independents and other such swing voters.....?

Santorum isn't far right. The establishment is happy that Santorum has been loyal to the party.

Santorum can win. Whether or not you like him you have to admit he is electable.

1. Santorum isn't far right!!!!! Where exactly do you place him then? He's certainly not anywhere near the McCain/Snowe wing of the party.

2. Yes Santorum is a good politician, a good speaker, and has charisma. He is nominatable (is that a word) BUT he is clearly to far removed from middle America to be elected President of the United States. 


Yes he will win the Billy Graham/Jerry Falwell types who may well support him in droves, but the point is, if the Democrats run anybody moderate or even a Kerry type then Santorum won't stand a chance. I just can't see how Mr and Mrs John Q. Taxpayer will support someone with such hardline politics.

And before you say it, yes his politics are hardline... Anyone who compares gays to those who engage in animal sex gets a cross in my book.

"Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Taxpayer" would prefer someone like Santorum over someone like Kerry, Gore, Clinton...

"Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Taxpayer" is a nonexistent person.

[Akno21]

Yes,

Bayh, Warner and Richardson are exactly the kind of nominees the Democrats need. I for one think Bayh has an excellent chance of getting the nomination.

It's not a question of what Dems need. It's a question of what will happen. Bayh or Warner getting the nomination - no way.

Why not. Moderate Democrats who both appeal to the base and consistently win in predominantly Republican states. The party would have to be stupid to give the nomination to someone Kerryesque this time around.

Moderate Democrats don't "consistently" do anything. Clinton only won so many states because of Perot, and he is the ONLY DEMOCRAT in recent memory to seriously put nominally conservative states in play (and he still got blown out in hardcore GOP states of course).

Clinton only lost Texas by 3, North Carolina by 1, South Dakota by 3, Wyoming by 6, he did not get blown out anywhere except North Dakota, Idaho, Nebraska, and Utah.