2009/2010 General Election

[afleitch]

It's never too early. I hope to edit and add to this post and add in later all sorts of gadgetry and maps to put together a reference page for all things relating to the next UK General Elections. First thing's first, transcribed from Rallings and Thrasher, the 'notionals'

Below is David Cameron's path to victory - to a majority of 1. Seats are listed in accordance to majority. So a majority of 2% would require a 1% swing to the Tories to win the seat. This assumes that the Tories will be able to make gains from the Lib Dems and the SNP...this is not as easy as it loooks. However for reference:

(Colour indicates which party holds the seat) Seat names have been shortened and simplified.

MAJ   
0.03   Gillingham
0.09   Crawley
0.44   York O.
0.46   Romsey
0.58   Harlow
0.66   Cheltenham
0.72   Croydon C.
0.77   Portsmouth N.
0.81   Battersea
1.00   Hove
1.12   Somerton
1.12   Eastleigh
1.70   Westmorland
1.71   Milton Keynes N.
1.85   Stroud
1.90   Dartford
2.14   Basildon S.
2.16   Ealing C.
2.20   Chester
2.33   Watford
2.39   Hereford
2.51   Colne Valley
2.53   Cardiff N.
2.54   Hastings
2.73   Calder Valley
2.92   Stourbridge LABOUR LOOSE MAJORITY - HUNG PARLIAMENT
2.93   Carshalton
3.04   Milton Keynes S.
3.13   Corby
3.30   Taunton
3.31   Perth
3.37   Vale of Glamorgan
3.50   Swindon S.
3.73   Dorset South
3.78   Northampton S.
3.80   High Peak
3.88   Loughborough
3.93   Aberconwy
4.01   Birmingham Edgbaston
4.01   Stafford
4.20   Angus
4.44   Broxtowe
4.70   Chippenham
4.81   Burton
4.83   Brighton Kempton
5.05   Bury N.
5.20   Rugby
5.30   Pendle
5.30   Redditch
5.31   Wolverhampton S.W.
5.32   Carmarthen W.
5.42   Ribble S.
5.45   Derbyshire S.
5.69   Bristol N.W.
5.74   Dumfries
5.87   Tamworth
6.01   Torbay
6.06   Cleethorpes
6.22   Sutton
6.25   Swindon N.
6.59   Westminster.
6.78   Worcester
6.87   Cornwall N.
6.89   Harrow E.
7.09   Richmond Park
7.41   Cheadle
8.00   Portsmouth S.
8.04   Bedford
8.05   Stevenage
8.06   Hendon
8.25   Chatham
8.29   Brentford
8.34   Bradford W.
8.35   Rossendale
8.44   Hammersmith
8.48   Blackpool N.
8.75   Halifax
8.82   Lancaster
8.88   Dewsbury
8.91   Dudley S.
9.00   Northampton N.
9.17   Warrington S.
9.25   Truro
9.32   Southport
9.47   Lincoln
9.50   Leicestershire N.W
9.63   Gedling
9.66   Halesowen
9.74   Nuneaton
10.18   Brecon
10.25   Cambourne (3rd)
10.35   Warwick
10.40   Dover
10.48   Keighley
10.50   Newton Abbott
10.71   Devon N.
10.84   Poplar
10.91   Stirling
11.11   Plymouth Sutton
11.14   Dudley N.
11.43   Elmet
11.47   Reading W.
11.65   Tynemouth
11.74   Morecambe
11.74   Pudsey
11.77   Cornwall S.E.
11.81   Ipswich
11.95   Bolton W.
11.99   Bolton N.E
12.00   Waveney
12.02   Sefton C.
12.17   Tooting
12.53   Amber Valley
12.54   Barrow in Furness CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 1

[afleitch]

Or in the interest of fairness (all % are swing):

Lab maj 150: Hexham (6.02% to Lab)
Lab maj 100: Staffordshire, Moorlands (1.93% to Lab)
Lab maj 50: Sittingbourne and Sheppey (0.03% to Lab)
Lab lose overall majority: Northampton South (1.89% to Con)
Con largest party in hung parliament: Blackpool North and Cleveleys (4.24% to Con)
Conservative majority: Bolton West (5.98% to Con)
Con maj 50: Weaver Vale (7.01% to Con)
Con maj 100: Norwich North (8.30% to Con)

I would do a table in Wikipedia, but since I upgraded to IE8 all text boxes are minute and so is plain text

The R&T figures are somewhat piecemeal - some sources put Waveney as the 'winning post.' I may defer to UKPollingreports figures for sake of consitancy

[afleitch]

"And the swing..."

Using Anthony Wells figures (UKPollingreport) the left hand side shows the % swing TO the Conservatives and how that, if uniformly spread, would affect the seat tallies.

To play about with it, assume the 2005 figures are:

LAB 36%
CON 33%
LIB 23%

The current average (again UKPollingreport numbers) is CON 42, LAB 29, LIB 19. That would be the Conservatives up 9 points and Labour down 7 points which equals a swing of 8% Lab to Con If repeated at the general election, this would give a theoretical Conservative majority of 40-60 seats. But remember...sweats swing differently.


            CON      LAB    MAJ
0          210      348     46
0.5       218      341     32
1          223      335     20
1.5       233      325   
2          244      313   
2.5       250      308   
3          262      297   
3.5       269      290   
4          272      287   
4.5       286      274   
5          295      266   
5.5       301      260   
6          311      250   
6.5       319      244   
7          328      236      6
7.5       335      229      20
8          345      219      40
8.5       355      213      60
9          362      204      74
9.5       367      201      84
10        378      191      106
10.5     388      184      126
11        396      178      142

[afleitch]

That' a very good point indeed. Any objections if I post a little something on UNS (uniform national swing)?

The more the merrier