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afleitch
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« on: August 14, 2008, 07:20:20 AM »

May as well start as we mean to go on Smiley I've opened this up for posting and discussion of a possible slide of the British economy into recession. As joyous as it would feel to see Gordon Browns record felled in one swoop and put an end to his stuttering 'economic growth' rants at PMQ's, I am feeling the pinch. I am having a 2% pay rise imposed on me (we may strike again) for the next three years and the 10p tax band scrap still affects me (when do I get my rebate. September?) and cost of living increases are noticeable.

First up today:

Sterling falls to 12 year low

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7560122.stm

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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2008, 07:10:12 AM »

UK recession 'likely' in the next 6 to 9 months

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7566792.stm
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afleitch
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2008, 07:11:27 AM »

UK economic growth at standstill; UK economic growth ground to a halt between April and June, according to the latest official data.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7576274.stm
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afleitch
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2008, 02:00:31 PM »

It makes very little real difference to ordinary people whether the economy eventually shrinks for two quarters in a row, except perhaps in an abstract, almost symbolic way. Inflation (especially food prices and so on; a lot of things have gone up a hell of a lot over past couple of months) and unemployment are more important (or at least more relevant), I think. Though obviously everything is connected and so on and so forth. That probably made less sense written down than it did in my head. And it might look like I'm trying to argue something that I'm not. Anyway. I knew what I meant.

Oh I quite agree. But it will, thankfully end Gordon's 'facts in your face' defence at PMQ's which was doing him no good. Cameron would talk about bread and Brown would talk about the balance book. Whether Cameron gave a sh-t about the price of bread and Brown didn't is neither here nor there. The message from Number 10 came across as detached and unsympathetic. Talking about 'quarters of sustain growth' means nothing to the voters.
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afleitch
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2008, 12:42:39 PM »

Downturn could be the worst for 60 years says Chancellor

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7589739.stm

The chancellor has insisted it is his duty to be straight with the public, after telling a newspaper the UK faces its worst economic crisis in 60 years. Alistair Darling told the Guardian the downturn would be more "profound and long-lasting" than most had feared.

I have to praise Darling; his honesty is refreshing and makes a change from his quiet facade. However these sound like the words of a man who knows he is being shifted from the Treasury. There is a strong likelyhood that there will be a re-shuffle and that Brown will attempt to shore up support by increasing public borrowing, breaking his own 'golden rule' and splashing out on what may be a voter free for all of incentives and non means tested freebies.

That's assuming that the public will like that; I don't think they will.
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