UK Opinion Polls Thread

[afleitch]

TNS/BMRB did the poll.

Ah! That explains it. Its System 3's successor.

[afleitch]

Who did the poll? Of course the answer to 'where are these extra votes coming from?' could easily be 'people who didn't vote last time' (perhaps combined with people who did vote last time not voting this time), although that would be a massive increase even taking that into account.

Now we know who conducted the poll it's not one to cause some concern.

What concerns me is any movement at all on the constituency vote from Conservative to Labour. It would mean that the Tories core vote has deserted to Labour. What YouGov etc have been showing is more interesting. The Tories are polling around 13-14% which is down on '07 (though as I mentioned, polling that in a Holyrood poll is pretty good for them). Internals seem to suggest that there is movement to the SNP.

The Tories constituency majorities, combined with the individual MSP's who hold these seats are sufficient enough to see them maintain all 5 (notionally)  I have excluded Dumfriesshire which I have as a notional Labour seat. It's an ultramarginal but considering the sitting MSP they will hold on and probably increase their majority (given that Labour voters in Upper Nithsdale/Stewartry have a reason to come out and vote...)

There are of course a slew of SNP/LAB maginals that are vulnerable but the SNP do have a chance in a number of Lib Dem held seats. Aberdeen South and Edinburgh Western are two examples. The Lib Dems with these figures (and with their two Highland MSP's retiring) are vulnerable to wipe out in the north of Scotland (less Orkney and Zetland) Notionally they don't hold the two Border seats either. This would mean we have something we have not seen in Scotland for some time; the Liberals reduced to an 'urban' presence.

[afleitch]

Actually the polls aren't picking up anything at all

[afleitch]

The SNP have opened up a lead in Holyrood voting intentions with Ipsos-MORI

Holyrood Constituency: CON 13%(nc), LAB 36%(-5), LibDEM 10%(nc), SNP 37%(+6)

Holyrood Regional: CON 13%(+1), LAB 33%(-3), LibDEM 13%(+1), SNP 35%(+3), Greens 6%

[afleitch]

Just some comments on the poll internals

The Lib Dems are less popular among the 18-24 age group than any other (7%)
SNP support is strongest amongst those aged 25-34

The Labour lead over SNP amongst women is 7%
The SNP lead over Labour amongst men is 10%

Conservative support amongst voters born elsewhere in the UK is 28% equal with Labour

The SNP lead over Labour in the 'least affluent 20%' is 9%. It's lead in the 'most affluent 20%' is 6%

[afleitch]

Very different figures than from other polls recently, not that there have been many. Should probably go in the thread for the election as well.

There is the problem. Anything by System 3's successor is easily ignorable. Ipsos-Mori are polling Holyrood every 3 months. The only downside is that they didn't poll during the 2007 election.

Labour were behind in most polls prior to the 2010 GE, since then they have bounded ahead. The question of course is what was this bounce based on; was it a reflection on what was happening in Westminster. Who know's. For the record they sample days were during a terrible week for 'Scottish' Labour who were caught out by the Megrahi issue and were lambasted for voting down a budget despite getting the concessions they had demanded.

Though the effect of that is weakened by the hoardes of voters who would say 'What's a budget, whats Megrahi and who is Iain Gray?'

[afleitch]

I fail to see any poll showing the SNP "opening a lead". Unless you meant against the National Government.

What is this 'National' Government you speak of?

[afleitch]

If David Cameron went to the palace tomorrow and asked for an April 10th election, it's safe to say he'd probably still be PM on April 11th. Hypothetically, in my opinion and all that...

I would agree, and not for any partisan reason. Labour's support is based on opposition to the government. The same was true until about this time last year for the Tories.

[afleitch]

Only posted as it is a curious poll

ICM

Conservative 37
Labour 36
Lib Dem 16

[afleitch]

The SNP take a 9% lead over Labour for Westminister.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3958

Expected. The SNP lead Labour in most polls in Scotland between 2007 and the start of the GE campaign. I expect them to do so again, to a greater extent...until the next GE

The Holyrood Constituency figures are worse for Labour and reduce them to 5 constituency seats, with the Tories on 1 and the Lib Dems on...2 (thank's to the Orkney/Shetland split)

[afleitch]

But since UKIP haven't won any seats yet, let's not run away with ourselves, eh?

Worth noting that on a forced choice question, Labour's lead with YouGov would be cut to 4. The UKIP protest in opinion polls is something we've seen in the past and usually dissapates. I'm not worried given we still have 3 years left to go.

[afleitch]

Populus has a 5 point gap.