British Local Elections, May 2024

[afleitch]

So today I learned that Andy Street is in a relationship with Michael Fabricant, notorious wig wearing MP for Lichfield.

Anyway, even though the tories deserve to lose everything, I voted for Street in spite of that as he's really done a good job. Also, if Labour win by too much they'll rest on their laurels and start cozying to the extreme left again.

Where the fk have you been 😁

[afleitch]

So yes, obvious warning signs for Labour in certain areas and demographics at a time when they can still address them.

[afleitch]

Interesting story with Reform.

Their vote share in assumed strong areas (where they are actually standing) is between 12 and 15%.

But you'd expect them to be doing better than that (as in significantly better than their 12% polling average) if they are their strong areas.

It could be that either, they stood where they aren't strong or their vote share is more uniform than Brexit/UKIP.

Or, as is more likely 'on the day' they will underperform their polling, which itself may ebb during a general election campaign.

[afleitch]

Average vote share change in the English Police and Crime Commissioner elections declared so far

CON -12
LAB +9.2
LD +3.8

Tories led Labour 44.5% to 29.7% in first preferences in England and Wales back in 2021 (and remember some Labour friendly Mets with Mayors didn't have these elections) and still some strong areas for Labour still to come.

[afleitch]

I'm thinking a good aggregate at the end of the weekend might be PCC elections, and Mayor elections where no PCC and Assembly results for London.

[afleitch]

Buried alive...

[afleitch]

Combined results so far for England PCC's and elected mayors (where no PCC election)

Labour 42.6
Conservative 30.7
Liberal Democrat 13.0
Green 5.2 (8.9 where standing)
Others 8.5

Probably a good combination of 'expected' results and over/under performances. Worth noting that in 'cop shop' elections, you do expect the Tories to do better

[afleitch]

Combined results so far for England PCC's and elected mayors (where no PCC election)

Labour 42.6
Conservative 30.7
Liberal Democrat 13.0
Green 5.2 (8.9 where standing)
Others 8.5

Probably a good combination of 'expected' results and over/under performances. Worth noting that in 'cop shop' elections, you do expect the Tories to do better

Final tally

Labour 42.1
Conservative 32.5
Liberal Democrat 13.1
Green 4.7
Others 7.5