Scotland 2007; results thread

[afleitch]

Theres quite a 'north-south' divide happening here...

Take a look at the map; If Aberdeen Central falls, barring two seats in Fife, Labour are 'gone' from the Campsie Fells to John O'Groats.

[afleitch]

SNP GAIN Livingston

[afleitch]

LAB HOLD Eastwood

Jackson Carlaw (CON) is not my favourite chap; though he coiuld usurp Goldie in the regional list. Personally pleased he lost, even if my party did too.

[afleitch]

I think Labour have won the most seats in Scotland; they are likely to gain in the Highlands and Islands and NE Scotland and while the SNP will take seats in the West of Scotland they are not strong enough, possibly to make up the numbers in the Lothian list.

[afleitch]

Despite everything that has gone wrong in the count; I am proud of the Scottish people for hopefully ending 50 years of Labour dominance. Their grassroots in Scotlands councils are withering. Their bully boy dominance of local politics and city politics will be no more.

[afleitch]

Eh, I almost thought Labour had carved out a first place there after all. Funny about the lack of possible coalitions. What 3 indies can do to throw a spanner in the works...

Margo will work well with the SNP (her 'beef' was with Swinney, not Salmond) As will the two Greens.

[afleitch]

Have you divided the tally by the number of seats won+1?

[afleitch]

I calculated it and got the same result as on the BBC. I'll do it by hand.

[afleitch]

I heard on News 24 there might be legal challenges to some results.

Yes - Labour wish to challenge the result in Cunnighame North. McConnell is also trying to undermine Salmond by trying to start coalition talks. Labour is desperately trying to hold onto power by any means possible (including dubious means on Thursday night/Friday morning)

Labour care not for the 150,000 spoiled papers and disenfranchised Scots, but for the handful where it counts for them. If they challenge, then the SNP can challenge the Airdrie and Shotts result. Then it just gets tit for tat.

Labour have no respect for the democratic system anyway from postal votes to dodgy machines. I expect them to stoop as low as they possibly can. My dislike for Labour has, over this election and from my experiences as a candidate, become a passionate hatred.

[afleitch]

Look guys, I'm sorry. But I'm just really pissed off with the whole conduct of this election. Labour do not, under any circumstances, wish to let go of power in Scotland despite losing the election. Their campaign was negative, their arrogance was transparent with their unwillingness to let Salmond have 'first dibs' on forming an administration until someone had a quiet word in McConnell's ear.

[afleitch]

Lib Dem MSP Tavish Scott has stated that if the Liberal Democrats cannot reach agreement with the SNP they will return to the backbenches. Nationally they had privately hoped for 20-25 seats and are left to lick their wounds.

[afleitch]

[afleitch]

So if the election turned out as badly for Scottish Labour as it was looking until the last few days, they might as well have changed their name to the Bloc Glasgow?

Labour were excellent at retaining their marginals, but lost seats further down the list. Seats such as Cunninghame South and East Lothian swung heavily away from them. Nationwide things were just bizzare. Loosing Edinburgh East but not Central, a swing to Labour in Dumfries and the SNP gaining Argyll and Stirling East.

Dunfermline East was also..strange. It was jokingly said that the Lib Dems may take it, but my jaw dropped when it did.

I also cannot see any relation to what happened to the 2005 General Election with the exception of Dumfries.

[afleitch]

Dunfermline East was also..strange. It was jokingly said that the Lib Dems may take it, but my jaw dropped when it did.

You mean Dunfermline West, right?

The odd thing is that they wouldn't have taken it on the Westminster boundaries; have a look at the local results in Fife: http://www.fife.gov.uk/topics/index.cfm?fuseaction=subject.display&subjectid=75FF1F89-38B3-4136-B0449D1529C55B51

Of course .. West

I do wonder what the new Holyrood boundaries, whenever they are drawn will do to the results.

[afleitch]

Do you still have that central-Scotland-wide map of the new wards?

Yes. I'll fish it out.

[afleitch]

Hope it's up to date.

[afleitch]

I wouldn't say Tories are cheering! They only had once councillor in 2003, the new system if in place in 2003 would have theoretically given them two. If anything they stood still.

Greens did very well however, particularly in Ward 8 - the new 'genteel' Gorbals

[afleitch]

Ruled out a few weeks ago IIRC

Expect a mass exodus should it happen; this isn't county politics, it's national. There was a split between SNP and Labour 'supporting' Conservatives that was very close to boiling point diuring the campaign; I wouldn't like to see it brought to the surface.

[afleitch]

...Which would clearly be a terrible system, seeing that Labour lost the popular vote quite significantly to the SNP.

Agreed

Here's Scotland, allocating the regional seats proportionally as per any particular parties share of the vote in any particular region [i.e. none of this "top-up" thing]

This system would mean, given all eight regions have seven additional seats, the following results [allowing for a minimum of 0.35 and a minimum vote share of 5% to secure additional representation]

Sorry Dave, regional seats are allocated not only on the basis of the regional vote, but also on the basis of how the parties have performed in terms of FPTP and constituency seats. What the ‘top up’ does is to redress the difference. True, a ‘second’ vote isn’t required; you could simply use the total votes in the constituencies and allocate the seats that way, but what you tested there was a system designed to reinforce the disproportionate effect of FPTP rather than address it.

It would be hard to justify a larger number of Labour seats than SNP seats after an election where the SNP topped the constituency, regional and nationwide council poll.

As I’ve said before, FPTP works on a UK wide level because it allows for not only majority government, but a change in government that reflects the level of the popular vote, even if some regions are solid red and some are solid blue. In Scotland and Wales, it does not. The SNP could be 7 to 10 points clear of Labour and still not gain the most constituency seats.

[afleitch]

Following a BBC report about the elections, I would like to know the following:

(copy of an e-mail sent to Aberdeen City Council)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I should point out that I am quite serious about this, as I think the Scottish Parliament would be able to get on with things if all the ballots were counted in the proper manner (i.e by a person not a computer)

Things in the Parliament are chugging along fine It's just the voting system that, again, is over complicated. With Labour out of power, there may be more of a push for total STV in MMC's at Holyrood, but thats not the sort of constitutional change the Executive (or should I say, as of today, Government) are aiming for at the moment.

If the report is harsh - Douglas Alexander may be forced out.