Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[afleitch]

Once Russian oligarchs can't travel and move money about with impunity and if the West impose the most extreme economic sanctions, then it will be a short war.

[afleitch]

The fact that Putin is ramping up a Ukraine incursion to me is a sign that he's in some serious trouble, either immediate, or in the short term domestically. There's some weakness here.

[afleitch]

Russia cannot fight a war that would involve mass civilian casualties. It cannot secure any land that it captures. It has no grounds it can make up to invade. It's propaganda output is weak and more unconvincing than usual.

It's just wanting attention.

[afleitch]

So nothing really new or unexpected. Continued porous border free-for all where Russia has already made an incursion and no doubt continued meddling in Ukrainian politics as has been the case for the past twenty years. Putin doesn't have a strong hand.

[afleitch]

Putin's terrible attempt at trying to false flag or grandstand that he was provoked has expectedly been a miserable failure. This is actually both quite telling and promising going forward. He's painted himself into a well trodden corner.

[afleitch]

Old Eastern Bloc nations wouldn't have joined our be lining up to join NATO if they felt safe from the country that defacto subjugated them for fifty years. It's really a simply tenet.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496933571352662028

Winds are projected to be northerly. So enjoy that Belarus.

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bnonews/status/1496993097225547778?s=21

RIP Martyrs

Absolute kings.

[afleitch]

Ukrainian PR is also extremely impressive; politicians at the front line while Putin reacts from his palace etc and is widely shared on social media which penetrates Russia and is really accessible by Russian troops themselves.

[afleitch]

Twitter outages in Russia.

[afleitch]

Fwiw, if I was a younger man and had an ounce of experience and usefulness I would go to Ukraine if I could.

[afleitch]

Russian can demand what it wants from Ukraine, but it won't budge the international response to Russia.

[afleitch]

I imagine that if the vote was today, those margins would be significantly closer. Ukraine, even eastern Ukraine has become significantly less pro Russia.

I think it's not so much that they are less pro Russia, but instead have a greater attachment to Ukraine. The conflict if anything has strengthened that; Russian 'values', culturally, whatever they may tangibly be, are best demonstrated by Ukraine.

[afleitch]

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia.

I’ve heard similar “reflections” among the American left, and tbh it is stunning to me. It really reveals how naive they have been.

Taibbi issued an apology of sorts to his subscribers and has went silent on Twitter. Ryan Grim has went into radio silence too. They were so spectacularly wrong, it's not so much that they have seen their brand trashed, but they have nothing to say about it, because they never knew anything about it in the first place.

Opinionists of a certain age and calibre who cut their teeth on Afghanistan and Iraq and give us some auto generated spiel about 'Snowden' (also silent) this, 'Assange' that, CIA etc have left a splendid silence.

Except Glenn Griftwald.

[afleitch]

Quite masterful of the EU to simply sidestep NATO militarily. And NATO letting them.

[afleitch]

International Olympic Committee now supports no Russian or Belarusian athletes or officials at the Olympics under any capacity.

[afleitch]

Looks like European resolve didn’t even last 24 hours.

Orban, you could have had a turn around, now you’re back on the sh**t list

Europe deserves invasion at this point. I’m saying it here. So does the US tbh.

Roll it in.

[afleitch]

Mod Notice

All recent posts quoting and referring to Russian propaganda, even those rightfully slamming it, have been deleted. No infractions except for the original poster.

[afleitch]

Mod Notice Excessive 'dooming' derails the thread. Please bear this in mind.

[afleitch]

But it's not 'dooming' to say that with each passing hour, Ukraine loses more and more territory even to an overstreched and not-all-that-enthusiastic opponent.

Russia is adhering to that old 18th century doctrine of uti possidetis -- the more territory Russia controls under foot the more they can claim than just besides Donbas.

It's not 'dooming' to present an honest assessment.

It is dooming to say, say 'OMG IM SO SCARED ATOMISE MOSCOW NOW OR EUROPE WILL FALL'.

[afleitch]

I mean, I don't really understand these 'oh I think Ukraine will fall' takes.

Of course Ukraine will fall, if fighting is sustained. It was always going to.

But the difference between Ukraine falling in 48 hours, to holding on for a full week is the difference between night and day. Russia has taken economic, military and a status hit that it doesn't have the option to recover from; that's up to the international community. It was have little say in an internationally recognised 'peace'. Even if it settles to a status quo for Ukraine, with Donbass and Crimea being as they were and Ukrainian democracy with the sword over it's head, while Ukraine might not be in NATO any time soon, Finland will be. Russia will be encircled regardless.

[afleitch]

Beyond parody:

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498674777032114184?s=20&t=dkpCwEqOuYSP1...

Showing a planned attack on Moldova.

[afleitch]

While I deeply hope China is able to bring peace and end this war, the text that I chose to bold interests me. The choice of words is not unique to China and I have seen others say that, but given that China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory I cannot help but see this as the CCP preparing their talking points for a coming invasion.

I wouldn't be as pessimistic. The situation of 'two Chinas' is distinctly unique. While China claims Taiwan, strictly speaking constitutionally, Taiwan claims China. If anything Russia's stumbling into Crimea in the first instance and now Ukraine, with the international repercussions will have made PRC rethink whatever long term or short term plans it had for Taiwan.

And as someone has mentioned, with Europe under the guise of the EU beefing up it's defences and adjusting it's diplomacy in response to Russia, it gives the US a greater ability to look towards the Pacific and no doubt may hasten Japan into a degree of militarisation if the post-war and post-cold war order of certain countries remaining neutral (eg Finland) is disrupted.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/joelmgunter/status/1499020076913250309?s=20&t=Pu9hb-YywT...

Russians have been shelling Mariupol for 15 or more hours, indiscriminately targeting residential districts. Hundreds of civilians believed to be dead.

This will be repeated in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and any other major city that puts up resistance. War crimes are the only strategy the Russian monsters know.

If Russian military inadequacy has reduced them to shelling residential areas, then that requires a direct military response.

I don't think in good conscience, we can maintain direct non-intervention when the target is almost exclusively civilians. This can be UN as opposed to NATO intervention.

[afleitch]

United Nations GA resolution condemning Russia has been passed.

Yes: 141
No: 5
Abstentions: 35

No info yet on who the five dipsh**t countries were... probably Russia, Belarus, Syria, ?, ?.

Eritrea and North Korea too.