International COVID-19 Megathread

[afleitch]

I do think if the world and everything in it has to go into lockdown for a year to fight a disease that really doesn't affect many under the age of 50, but cuts like a knife through butter amongst the over 70's that there will be potential riots if not outright revolution unless those who are of working age are adequately secured/compensated by massive economic reform in their favour if they are to sacrifice (for many another) a decade of their working life and years of their social life. Otherwise, as an earlier poster said 'just let the olds die' won't be something said ironically.

[afleitch]

Sweeping state socialism just announced in the UK.

[afleitch]

UK now effectively in lockdown with police enforcement, but their statutory powers to do this is somewhat limited.

[afleitch]

I think the long term plan will probably be to ease the restrictions to a point allowing the economy to start to recover once the rate of infection starts to slow but effectively place the vulnerable (who are overwhelmingly economically inactive) in a state of almost permanent lockdown until there is a vaccine. The steps being taken now are being taken to not overwhelm healthcare systems completely. Unfortunately if the virus is something that has high rates of re-infection or becomes annual then I suspect the most physically vulnerable will be quarantined until there is a vaccine.

It is horrific to force this on people. It is less horrific than the virus decimating that group and that uncomfortable balance will have to be struck.

[afleitch]

I think the long term plan will probably be to ease the restrictions to a point allowing the economy to start to recover once the rate of infection starts to slow but effectively place the vulnerable (who are overwhelmingly economically inactive) in a state of almost permanent lockdown until there is a vaccine. The steps being taken now are being taken to not overwhelm healthcare systems completely. Unfortunately if the virus is something that has high rates of re-infection or becomes annual then I suspect the most physically vulnerable will be quarantined until there is a vaccine.

It is horrific to force this on people. It is less horrific than the virus decimating that group and that uncomfortable balance will have to be struck.

I disagree. If you only have a few years left to live being held in quarantine for most of that time is much worse than dying of Corona. Maybe you can quarantine younger people from high risk groups (after all if they on average have 30-40 years left to live you'll "only" be robbing them of maybe 2.5-3% of their remaining life-span), but doing it to people simply because they're old is extremely cruel.

How would that logistically work. Give free mobility to those high risk groups (who can often have limited or need assisted mobility anyway) but quarantine everyone else? Can you explain?

[afleitch]

Some talk tonight of a potential proposal of a 'National Government' in the UK in the event of a prolonged or staggered crisis.

[afleitch]

Terrible numbers out of Italy.

The week has ended I think in Europe with the expectation that this might now last longer than was hoped.

[afleitch]

Scotland too may have flattened. Cases yesterday were as low as those 4 days ago.

In terms of cases per 100k, it's the Scottish Borders and Dumfries and Galloway that have the highest cases perhaps due to cross border travel. The Islands have very few cases for the opposite reason.

Only 3% of UK fatalities and our trajectory is quite slow which is helpful.

[afleitch]

Worth reminding the lock downs are in place to stop overwhelming health systems. Later peaks can be better managed through a Korean style tracing system.

[afleitch]

Yeah. The UK's week to ten day delay to lockdown is starting to show.

[afleitch]

Though people are going to *need* some sort of indication when lockdowns will at least be eased soon  - otherwise a breakdown of its effectiveness, with chaotic and likely disastrous consequences, is inevitable.

In that context Austria is doing the right thing, even though timings can be questioned.

Given all mass sports events are off, most huge concerts etc (often the first measures taken) the summer already has a cleared schedule. Let workers back, shops open etc. Even cinemas have a cleared box office but could reopen with social distancing.

[afleitch]

Kier Starmer rightfully asking the UK not to give a timetable as such, but a 'what opens first' outline.

[afleitch]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/11/south-korea-struggles-to-contain-new-outbreak-amid-anti-lgbt-backlash

'Authorities in South Korea are struggling to contain a new coronavirus outbreak linked to the capital’s nightclub district as a backlash against the country’s gay community increases, prompting fears LGBT people will fail to get tested out of fear of being outed.'

'After Kookmin Ilbo, a local media outlet with links to an evangelical church, reported that businesses visited by an infected man over the long weekend were gay clubs, many other South Korean media followed suit, revealing not only the identity of clientele but also some of their ages and the names of their workplaces.'

[afleitch]

Turkmenistan still fighting the good fight there, they actually banned the virus don'tcha know?

Yes, a heroic effort. Unfortunately there is presently this mysterious and very dangerous dust blowing through the country, and citizens have been instructed to protect themselves by wearing face masks, and also, in order that the dust may circulate better, to stand about two metres apart.

Also applies to most of the States tbh.

[afleitch]

Glasgow is likely to be the next UK hotspot.

Unlike in other instances where specific businesses or patterns of indivudual behaviour have been identified, here it's household visits which have now been curtailed as they are more likely to be cross generational. That also gives it a potential to infect at risk groups.

[afleitch]

It is more Asian than the Scottish average, with major concentrations in some wards, but not hugely so.

Demography of Glasgow

One Scottish author's most violent Glaswegian is a petite South Asian woman...

I know Glasgow has the highest Asian population in Scotland, but it is still *mostly* white.

(in contrast to several other "hotspot" areas)

Pouring over the data, recent infections across different deprivation levels in Scotland show little difference. Sturgeon reiterated today that house gatherings are the root cause which to me suggests it's not linked to deprivation and by extension, ethnicity being inferred from that.

Having said that it won't be helpful if hotspots constantly overlap with Asian populations. Nothing is wilful; it's geography, poverty and household size. It's the same reason why 20 somethings are more susceptible. It is however dangerous for authorities in letting people make assumptions about the data and geography rather than take time to explain it.

[afleitch]

What is going on in the UK? I am very concerned given that even with their higher vaccination rates, their numbers are still so high. More importantly, why did cases in India and the US fall while they haven’t for the British? What is going on?

A decision was basically made to let all schoolkids develop "natural immunity" by getting it.

Schools returned in Scotland earlier and before UK Gov announced a vaccine rollout for those school aged. That alone trebled cases in a fortnight but they fell equally as sharp and we're at the lowest of the four nations again.

Nothing changed in terms of restrictions apart from the continued mask mandate and the vaccine passport hasn't really kicked in yet.

There may be 'reasons' why this strategy has been followed, with schools given that the overly cautious Scot Gov didn't increase restrictions.

Untimately the link between case numbers and hospitalisation and between hospitalisation and death has been severed. Deaths are concentrated among the elderly (and presumably vaccinated) which is more of a ... 'normal' for a flu-like illness. Which I think is what they are going for.

There is also talk of the 'flu' itself coming back with a bang this winter, so maintaining socialisation to try and dilute it's effects might be another factor.

[afleitch]

Putin announced a work-free week from October 30 to bring down infection rates.

It's actually stunning the vaccination rate is Russia is that low despite the government's pressure to get vaccinated. I wonder why there is so much hesitancy there? You would expect more people follow the call of an autocratic leader.

It might be also be the only way to express extreme dissatisfaction.

[afleitch]

There have now been a couple of cases of Scary New Variant confirmed in the UK.

And it's been enough for the Government to introduce some of the Plan B measures.

Smart. Simply because everything was actually going quite well until now. And even waiting a week or so for more data is too long.