UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[afleitch]

The issue is one of sovereignty, which in terms of Scots Law and precedent, there is a much more nuanced relationship between that issue and the powers of the (Westminster) Parliament.

It has been argued that the Act of Union places limits on Parliamentary sovereignty in Scotland. This has only been tested 'ceremoniously'.

It is also relying on precedence; the 1997 and 2014 were both consultative referenda; the trigger for negotiation being an affirmation. The 1997 referendum was held before the Scotland Act was published. The 2014 referendum, if yes had won, would not have made Scotland independent immediately and Parliament could, theoretically, have ignored it. If Parliament was deemed sovereign upon any challenge to that result. The 1979 referendum result was ignored, but this was based on a question put to voters after an Act of parliament had received royal consent which included the trigger that if the turnout clause hadn't been met, the Act would be repealed.

[afleitch]

Would be an interesting by-election. Since he first contested (and lost) in 2005 he turned a Labour majority of 6100 to a Tory majority of 19,600.

Nothing for Labour to squeeze here; would have to have a solid swing from the Tories.

[afleitch]

Historically this is a very significant double loss. Should be the end of the PM immediately in any other period of British politics.

[afleitch]

He's going to keep going to 2024 isn't he. Even if he has to scrape the Lords for suitable ministers. He is utterly shameless.

[afleitch]

Zahawi what a slimeball trying to hatch on the Grey Suits brigade.

Zahawi Deserts.

[afleitch]

Worth noting that the PM does not have the unrestricted power to dissolve Parliament when he/she wishes: a request must be made to the Sovereign, who can refuse. The rules governing this at present are the so-called Lascelles Principles, submitted by terrifying Mid Century Arch-Flunkey Sir Alan Lascelles (a.k.a. 'Tommy', a.k.a. 'Senex') in an anonymous letter to The Times in 1950. Quite a few of the scenarios being floated around at present happen to violate both active parts of the Lascelles Principles, which would presumably mean a refusal.

What's unique about this situation is the lemmingisation of senior and junior ministers which has never happened before. If the Cabinet can't move him and they resign then the 1922 Committee can only remove him as party leader. He ends up a political cuckoo.

The System is fairly flexible, but it's not really designed well for this sort of politician. As we know the monarch can technically fire him but that's a crisis in itself.

[afleitch]

Larry the cat currently refusing to go in.

[afleitch]

I mean Gove absolutely deserves this. Even if the instigator is clearly deranged.

[afleitch]

[afleitch]

So it's likely that the Tory led adminstration will make it to at least 14 years longevity with four PM's. Not entirely unusual; 1951 to 1964 also had four PM's. But still unusual.

I do wonder if and when the public will tire of the inability to oust a government themselves. 2019 obviously being a collective shot in the foot.

On that note, the 2019 majority is far less impenetrable in one GE as it looks. By-elections have shown this.

Thatcher's 1979 win was historic, but easily reversible. Labour just fell apart which gave us 1983. 1987 was a genuine endorsement of Thatcherism (and rejection in some parts of the UK). 1992 while a Tory victory was still a huge unwinding . Likewise 2010 was a huge unwinding of Blair's mandate perhaps more so than an endorsement of the Tories.

Add to that a fluid electorate then the next GE is fair game.

[afleitch]

Leads of 12,11 and 12 for Labour in the last 3 polls.

(which would likely equate to the fabled "20 points" with the old less pro-Tory methodology)

The polls (at least the Tory share) and the by-election shifts have been somewhat out of sync. Perhaps some over correction in the poll methodology? We don't know until the GE of course.

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CovidRadicals/status/1551516857500327938

So this happened. Protestors storm a library and film and shoot obscenities at children. It was only a matter of time. Much of the TERF online chatter had been moving in this direction for a number of months.

[afleitch]

'Living of the Truss Fund' might end up being the new thread title btw.

[afleitch]

Not terrible for Starmer.

37% 'ready' isn't bad compared to his predecessors particularly as the 'not ready' is low. Corbyn's score was the same for both elections despite one being significantly worse than the other.

[afleitch]

Certainly this winter we will see people literally freeze to death in their own homes. If Labour can't maintain an election winning poll lead it should just wind down.

[afleitch]

It really does feel that things are collapsing doesn't it?

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1566339080312406017

This is what happens when you don't know who your core vote is. Yesterday there was talk of a bonfire of workers rights from maximum working hours, to days off.

The Tories seem to think that they won, and can win off the backs of retirees and the self employed. They won big because of a huge shift in older Gen X and younger boomers who, to put it mildly, are facing as much financial cliff as everyone else

This is the strategy of a party that wants to be out of office.

[afleitch]

The End

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