Did Clinton do as well as expected on ST? (user search)
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  Did Clinton do as well as expected on ST? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Did Clinton do as well as expected on ST?  (Read 4849 times)
afleitch
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« on: March 02, 2016, 08:42:02 AM »
« edited: March 02, 2016, 08:58:09 AM by afleitch »

There isn't really a discussion here. Sanders got crushed. He is basically performing like Romney v Obama within each racial group. That wasn't enough to win in a general election electorate and it's sure as hell won't cut it in a Democratic primary.

‘But I know this black guy who DJ’s sometimes in a bar in Dumbo and he’s definitely voting for Sanders...’

Let’s be honest, Sanders is a liberal Trump.

Evidently Sanders is 100 times the man Trump is, but a shift in the electorate allowing for an increasing bloc of ‘millennial’ voters, the rise of the religious ‘nones’ to becoming an actual voting bloc on par with the voting power evangelical right (which is so far taking a beating) and the rise of the ‘angry’ white liberal who chastises the party for not being liberal enough is essentially a ‘reactionary left’ mirror to the ‘reactionary right’ of the GOP.

They are politically opposite and personally one is far more welcome than the other but in terms of potential alienation from their respective parties, dismissal and mistrust of the party machinery, or of the centre ground and the inability to connect with voters outside of their bubble and be exasperated at why these people don’t connect with them and some of the ‘media against us’ conspiratorial hot air, they are functionally the same.

There is a undercurrent that in some outlets has even become exposed to the surface (like the cesspit Daily Kos has become), that blacks and latinos ‘don’t know what’s good for them’ and if they did would vote for Bernie. ‘Whitesplaining’, even with good intentions is cringe-worthy and least and at most, insulting.

Sanders has a problem. It is very real. It won’t go away by making vague appeals to GE matchup polls or back of the envelope calculations that he might have won ‘minority’ voters in Vermont. He has a problem with non-whites, non-liberals, women and the over 45’s.  The Democrats need to win the election with the same coalition that swept Obama to power. Even if black turnout drops the continued drift of latino voters by default to the Democrats should keep things on par.

If anything we are seeing a reversal of the 2008 primary; Clinton is continuity Obama and carries his coalition (except the youth). Sanders appeal is becoming limited to white voters like Clinton in 2008, except they are young and angry and not old and bitter.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2016, 05:23:30 PM »

[quote author=Californian Tony Returns link=topic=231037.msg4949521#msg4949521
Still, overall, I guess Hillary did do better overall (though it's all thanks to the South).
[/quote]

Like Obama Smiley
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afleitch
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« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2016, 06:38:54 PM »

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Like Obama Smiley

Uh no, Obama also did extremely well in the West and Midwest. He broke 65% in 9 States, and only one of those was in the South (Georgia).

I wouldn't call Hillary a "regional candidate" since she obviously has broad-based appeal, but it's clear her strength is unusually concentrated for a candidate who is so far ahead nationally. Basically, take away the South and the race is actually pretty close.

Until we get to OH, PA, MI etc

I hope Bernie stays competitive, so that we end up with a map that tells us what the relative strength of each candidate looks like nationwide. In this case we'll be able to tell how crucial the South was to Hillary.

Like Obama Smiley
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