English local elections, May 2014

[afleitch]

Survation poll for the London borough elections: Lab 42 Con 26 LD 14 UKIP 11 Green 4 Others 3

(link)

Probably not to be trusted, but what kind've seat count would this give us?

It would be Labour's largest vote share since 1974, the Tories lowest share ever and the worst for the Liberal Democrats since 1990.

The Tories would be down 6 points. It's worth noting that the Tory share in 2010 was their lowest since 1994. Labour would be up 9. The Lib Dems would be down 8

[afleitch]

The one good thing about UKIP councillors is that they will drop one a day after the election because Facebook reveals they are nuts.

[afleitch]

Wading though some 'constituency' results. UKIP lead in the wards that make up the Dudley North seat.

[afleitch]

The locals aren't really telling us much. It's business as usual (when comparing with 2010 locals which were very good for Labour in spite of the GE) in a number of councils that have reported. UKIP are making gains as expected (though tell that to the pundits on the telly this morning) but still have, at the moment have won half the councillors that the Lib Dems have (which they won in 10 on the back of Clegg-mania) It's the strange ones like Rotherham and Hammersmith (and Eastleigh to be fair) that are generating interest.

[afleitch]

It's the strange ones like Rotherham and Hammersmith (and Eastleigh to be fair) that are generating interest.

And note that the 'defeat' in Rotherham and the actual defeat in Hammersmith were both self-inflicted (same with loss of LibDem majority in Pompey). Spectacular local results are usually the result of local issues... so long as there aren't many specular results in total.

Very true. London is obviously very good for Labour and wins by UKIP in some areas are giving us our first taste of electoral 'geriocracy' but at the same time two UKIP councillors in Bolton does not maketh a f-cking summer.

[afleitch]

All is not lost. Tory's still topped the count in the wards that made up Elmet and Rothwell

[afleitch]

Can Danny Alexander be drafted in to front every Labour campaign until he dies? That would brighten my day.

[afleitch]

Projected national vote shares on the BBC:

Labour 31%
Conservative 29%
UK Independence Party 17%
Liberal Democrats 13%
Others 10%

Overall looks like the Tories will be most pleased with these vote shares...

Those are Curtice's (rather than Rallings and Thrasher). Compared with the locals last year, again using Curtice's figures for the BBC Labour are actually up 2, the Tories up 4 and the Lib Dems down 1. UKIP are down 6. They are doing very well but not as well they did last year.

[afleitch]

Rallings and Thrasher PNS out. Labour 1 point ahead of the Tories which is not bad a year out.