ICM. The Guardian, 22/2

[afleitch]

As 20 year old student, the support for Michael Howard in the 18-24 category doesn't suprise me (48% asset to 30% liability) There is a 'under the surface' support for the Conservatives among many students, who no-longer see Labour as the natural 'student friendly' party.

[afleitch]

I wouldn't say there is a class split at all, at least along traditional lines. There is a 'have' and 'have not' split however, but its class in reverse. The 'haves' are those who are considered 'disadvantaged' by the govt and find themselves given a hand up into university, poor qualifications still get them entry and loans galore without the worry of paying it back to the same degree. The 'have nots' are those with good grades, middle class kids who are survive on few loans, work part time and are now levied with top up fees. Sounds rather blunt I know, but it is the truth. Labour has undermimed the Higher Education system. It is time the professionals claimed it back. I mean come on, qualifications in FLOWER ARRANGING!

[afleitch]

Section 28 was terrible, but as a gay man who campaigned against it a few years ago in Scotland, I can forgive Howard for it. This election is not about the distant past. It is a judgement on Labour's record, not the Conservatives.

[afleitch]

We are currently in 'Phoney War' mode with regards to the election. When it is called, Labour's support will fall, but we won't know who benefits- whether Lid Dem or Tory. The most important aspect is GOTV. We all know people who would answer Labour if asked who they would vote for, but who say that they probably won't vote. I've been mulling over this and throwning minor parties into the equation I really do think that a Labour majority of around 20 could appear, perhaps even a hung parliament.