EP elections 2014

[afleitch]

ICM have polled Scotland FWIW;

SNP 43
LAB 24
CON 14
UKIP 7
LIBDEM 6

[afleitch]

If UKIP poll strongly, while it'll only be milkable for a short while, it'll be interesting to see what effect it has on the voting intentions in the Scottish Referendum.

[afleitch]

Doing the vote match thingy;

For Scotland I got the SNP unsurprisingly. Lib Dems second.

[afleitch]

YouGov/The Scum: Labour 29, UKIP 28, Con 22, LDem 9, Green 8, Nat 3, Others 2

---

Basically polling for Euro elections is a total crapshoot. The poor polling firms don't even really know what they're measuring or how to do so. *shrugs*

They still have time to prove themselves. Polling in the last week or so in 2009 wasn't bad. The problem is that polling for Others is curiously low at this stage in the campaign.

[afleitch]

Survation (another out of the ass poll) for Britain

UKIP 31%
LAB 28%
CON 24%
LIB 7%

[afleitch]

ICM poll for UK: Con 27, UKIP 26, Lab 24, Green 10, Lib Dem 7

Ugh... (well apart from the Greens doing OK)

UKIP topped the poll in 2009 in traditionally Labour areas (Hull, Stoke, Dudley, Hartlepool) and the Lib Dem areas of Cornwall. If Labour are only getting anything from 32-36% nationally at Westminster polls then winning anything close to 30% at the Euro's would be a massive retention rate for what is a third rate national election.

[afleitch]

I still haven't made up my mind on who to vote for with a few days to go. That's probably the latest decision since I first started voting.

[afleitch]

The environment became a major political issue for the first time in the 1980s (even before Chernobyl) and none of the mainstream parties had much to say on the matter. European elections are meaningless mickey mouse elections. The centre parties were in a mess and not able to pick up protest votes, and...

That and the fact the Lib Dems were still the SLD at that time. There was little conscious awareness of them and in many ways, there wasn't until the 'close' campaign in '92.

The only thing this election might be good for is telling us where UKIP voters are. Problem is the patterns for 2004 don't tell us (especially where Kilroy stood) and neither really do the votes in 2009. But it might be helpful for those who want to know where they might win take the Lib Dem's place as the fairly distant second against a Tory duffer in East Anglia.

[afleitch]

Didn't make up my mind until I got to the booth. Voted SNP (voted Tory previous two times)

[afleitch]

Was this a 'stop UKIP' vote? The SNP have been trumping that line on Twitter.

I treat the European Election as a European election Tories were my third choice because I don't like the group they sit with. Both SNP and Greens; my alternate choices sit on the same group anyway. My vote would do little to stop UKIP; we don't know where UKIP votes will come from in Scotland so I don't know what's tactically possible.