2004 Democratic Primary

[afleitch]

Gordon Brown is odds on to succeed Blair, simple as that. Its a job he has been groomed for since the 80's under Neil Kinnock. Blair is still the most consistently popular PM since polling began, and Brown has name recognition. I can see circumstances with  Blair being in power until 2011/12 if he wins his third term and spends out its duration. If this is the case, then it does start to become more unlikely that Brown will be the next leader, or indeed that any of the present front bench will be. The following is a list of names to look out for in this case.

Alan Milburn- former health minister, resigned due to family and personal reasons. Could still be tempted.

Estelle Morris- former education minister, resigned because she felt she was not up to the job. A rare example of an honest politician.

Yvette Cooper- A 'Blair Babe'

David Lammy- Youngest sitting MP. Blairite and Black.

Stephen Twigg- Gay. Bet Portillo in Enfield Southgate in 1997

[afleitch]

Blair may not be universally popular, that is true, but he is far far more popular (and populist) than Michael Howard. Even with a low turn out in 2005/06, Labour are a shoe in. What we do have is a 'Blair Effect'. In the 1980's as Thatcher herself once admitted to a backbencher, people voted for her, rather than for the party, or even for their own MP. This same effect is apparent with Blair, leader for 10 years, Prime Minister for 7, people are comfortable with him, especially when faced with the alternatives.