It's Over, People

[afleitch]

fwiw Obama has really crashed on 538 the last week.

That's in part because Silver's model is still accounting for effects from a convention bounce that, while large, has so far seemed to have dissipated faster than expected.

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few days as Obama's plus 5, plus 5, plus 7 on today's national polls (or -1 or tied with Rasmussen just to be fair...) Nate has recently suggested that this should see the model start pushing Obama up again.