Scotland Independence Poll

[afleitch]

Vagates between about tied and up to fifteen points down, and has for years.
Drops through that floor whenever "devo max" is also offered as an option in the same poll - even if not directly as an alternative but as a separate question.

^^^^^
This

Essentially I'd say there's a 'hard' 35% for, 45% against and 20% either way depedning on mood or the wording of the question. Having a national debate about independence will of course shift this; Salmond is banking on being able to win over the 20%.  It's not entirely impossible for him to do as he will be leading the YES campaign (at least the public face) but the NO campaign will be the three unionist parties and business groups. Cameron can't lead it and the Scots have a tendency of doing the opposite of what a Tory says. Miliband of course can't lead anything.

If you end up with several NO campaigns against Salmond being Salmond then it's going to be a walk in the park for the YES vote.

[afleitch]

Heh, I just came to this thread to include a quote of your last post over in the other one, namely

As I understand it, the proposal is a 'counter' to independence; full fiscal autonomy. It's actually a very sensible suggestion (though calling it Home Rule is a bit of an anachronism on their part) Indeed it is pissing me off somewhat that no Westminster party has committed itself to that cause. The Scottish Tories could have and should have embraced that form of radicalism several years ago but failed to do so.

That is part of the reason why I'm inclined to vote in favour of independence, because I don't want the status quo and no party is offering me anything better.

as an explanation why (beyond pollee moderate heroism; not an uncommon phenomenon in polling, of course) support for Independence may fall if third options are introduced.

I fully agree with you.

I am a fiscal conservative. However Scotland as you know is given a lump sum by Westminster to spend as it wishes. It is impossible to promote any type of fiscal responsibility under Devolution if you make savings but loose the money you saved back to Westminster because of the savings. So you will always spend it.

Likewise, should you wish to borrow money to boost the economy that is also a tedious and difficult process. There is no desire in Westminster to have a ‘Scottish Economy’; to have any arrangement where by it over or under performs the rest of the UK. Which is of course understandable. If you give us control of producing revenue through tax raising powers then you have to give us control over other stream of revenue such as oil and gas where there has always been a reluctance to open the books.