UK General Discussion

[afleitch]

Sunday Times poll suggesting close to 50/50 split for independence if there's an early vote on leaving the EU

[afleitch]

Winning women is the key to winning the independence argument. It's the Yes campaigns 'final push' next year but I'll not talk much more about that. The UKIP thing has been a bonus; Euroskepticism reeks of 'English nationalism' more than just about any other issue and it turns off voters north of the border.

[afleitch]

Winning women is the key to winning the independence argument. It's the Yes campaigns 'final push' next year but I'll not talk much more about that.

It was just an observaton of an interesting development, not a question directed to you in particular.

I know. Surely there's no harm in commenting though? There's always been a disconnect, even in good polls for us, between the genders. The social aspects of the debate haven't been fully discussed as it's a bit of an economics tit for tat. There's a hope we can focus on that next year.

[afleitch]

Tim Loughton's wrecking amendment was defeated by a majority of 305.

[afleitch]

Labour MPs who voted for the Loughton amendment were apparently:

Joe Benton (Bootle), Rosie Cooper (West Lancashire), David Crausby (Bolton North East), Jim Dobbin (Heywood & Middleton), Frank Field (Birkenhead), Mary Glindon (Tyneside North), Paul Murphy (Torfaen), Yasmin Qureshi (Bolton South East).

At least one name on that list is... amusing. Anyways, I think all but Field (a very conservative Anglican) and Qureshi are Catholics. Murphy is actually a Papal Knight. Notable geographical concentration in the North West, but I repeat myself.

And Frank doesn't half love getting on his high horse about broken families.

Being a 70-year-old bachelor really qualifies you as an expert on these matters apparently.

It works for the Catholic Church; we have 70 year old bachelors declaring themselves sex, marriage and family experts.

[afleitch]

Bigger picture Conservatives release that David Cameron is an asset. His favourable are still relatively favourable and in most polls out paces Ed Miliband and that’s the man who he will face in two years time. Furthermore, Tory strategists had expected to be some 20 points behind at this stage (as Tory governments have usually been) and been pleasantly surprised at Labour’s relatively low polling numbers. Miliband has been Labour leader now for almost 3 years and still has an image problem. He’s still ‘weird’. Furthermore Labour is barren of policy announcements. This is a genuine problem for the party; last night I was surprised to hear a BBC News report prefaced with ‘Labour, who have not announced what they would do…’ when cutting to a party figurehead talking about the economy. What is Labour going to do?

We know what they will do, but not announce. The Tories already ring fenced NHS spending and as an issue, the NHS isn’t really causing them much trouble. Labour will obviously stick to that. Furthermore the changes to the benefits system and the introduction of universal credit will not be rolled back because it’s what Labour wanted to do but didn’t have the political capital to do so. Likewise the public sector will see limited pay rises or freezes as a result. It makes me think that had Labour won the election in 2010, then they would probably be doing the exact same thing that the Tories are currently doing.

[afleitch]

So Ed Balls announces that Labour will stick to Tory spending targets if they win the next election. Always a joy to hear.

[afleitch]

The Church of England has effectively given up opposing equal marriage, at least politically.

[afleitch]

Interesting survey of young people;

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/jgdvn3vm4b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190613-youth-survey.pdf

[afleitch]

If anything it's a reflection on Labour's leadership (now that they officially have one) in Scotland which is...more than wanting.

[afleitch]

ICM has Labour and the Tories neck and neck at 36 each with UKIP down to 7. Could it be over for the UKIP-fest?

[afleitch]

UKIP at 7 seems... odd.

Yes, hard to believe really for the current situation.  Though as a prediction of the next election result this poll may not be unreasonable.

It's ICM. Whether it's still the gold standard is up for question, but it's still a strong company. I expect a Tory victory in 2015, but that's just me.

[afleitch]

Because Labour need to win a majority to be sure of forming a government. There will be a certain number of minor party MPs Labour could presumably rely-ish on for one reason or another at least for confidence votes (Plaid, the SDLP - if they have any seats left, that is, Lucas/Galloway/etc), but after that you have the unreliable DUP and SNP. The DUP at least are easy to bribe, but like most congenitally corrupt parties are greedy. The current LibDem leadership will have to be ousted for any kind of deal with Labour that lasts more than five seconds.

And Labour have done well to very well in most constituencies that currently have Labour MPs. This is good news, given how badly we did in 2010. There are also quite a few constituencies that do not have Labour MPs where Labour have done rather well. This is also good news. But there are a lot of seats that we sort of have to win where recovery has clearly started, but...

Of course this might just be an expression of pessimism.

What would be very curious is if Labour won say a small majority or formed a coalition government in 2015 after Scotland voted in favour of independence the year before (unlikely of course) Such a result in Scotland would no doubt cause a constitutional crisis anyway (as Westminster are not taking the vote as seriously as perhaps it should) and could conceivably force a general election. If it did occur, then independence is scheduled for 2016. Would seats in Scotland even be contested? I suspect that strategically the Tories wouldn't (as they would only loose 1 seat anyway). It's all wonderful wishful thinking of course.

[afleitch]

The economy has recuperated half it's recession losses. Now it might take a year or two for people to begin to 'feel' it but with a single digit Labour poll lead, low favourability ratings for Ed and two years to the election I'm feeling quietly confident.

[afleitch]

The economy has recuperated half it's recession losses. Now it might take a year or two for people to begin to 'feel' it but with a single digit Labour poll lead, low favourability ratings for Ed and two years to the election I'm feeling quietly confident.

The idea of this appalling government being re-elected is really quite depressing.

If they do, then it's because of this;

[afleitch]

It comes down to this. I'm no huge fan of the government; I've resigned my party membership but what is the Labour Party for? What is it's purpose? I do not have the slightest idea who Ed Miliband is and why he wants to be PM if indeed he even cares for it. I don't know what Labour's policy on anything is other than to oppose. Or not oppose as it happens when it comes to changes to the benefits system or to the 'Tory cuts' which are bad and mean and hurt the poor we are told, but to which Labour propose to stick to for two years. So instead we have them trying to undercut the Tories on bloody cigarettes. Whoopee sh-t.

Why on earth should anyone care about Labour? The best way to oppose this government, and my goodness has it been opposed, has not been through Labour.

[afleitch]

Oh please. You'd write that no matter what Labour had done over the past few years because you hate the Labour Party. Which you're entitled to do (of course), but don't pretend that you're an objective observer.

Anyway, the reality of the Westminster system - when a government has a secure majority, at least, as this one does - is that oppositions can generally do very little other than grumble from the sidelines.

And I expected you would write that too. Objective observer ...

[afleitch]

With the Tories also targeting the other Berwick seat in Scotland. I'll be sad to see the blob of yellow straddling the border potentially dissapear. Actually, no I won't.

[afleitch]

David McLetchie MSP, the former Tory leader in Scotland has died of cancer at 61. There will be no by-election as the seat will be filled by the next in the list for the Tories which should be Cameron Buchanan.

[afleitch]

ICM shows 40% back the Tories on the economy up from 28% in June. Labour ahead by 3% in the poll for voting intention but looking good. I'll take that less than two years before the GE.

[afleitch]

Pelter was a (D) Miliband supporter who thinks (E) Miliband doesn't stand up for the poor.

Where is the f**king logic in that?! Seems the media love-in on D. Miliband has worked a treat.

He's so dreamy.

[afleitch]

Which links into confidence in that kind of situation, which links in to class.

Not really. You can be the muck of the Earth and still have the self-professed arrogance to write an Oxbridge personal statement.

Bingo.

[afleitch]

Urgh.

http://www.gaystarnews.com/article/section-28-returns-uk-schools-ban-promotion-gay-issues170813

'Three UK academies have stepped back to the 1980s by banning teachers from saying anything positive about gay life.

Gay Star News can reveal Castle View Enterprise Academy in Sunderland, Colston Girl's School in Bristol and Swindon Academy have re-introduced anti-gay language from Section 28, which banned the ‘promotion of homosexuality’, into their Sex and Relationships Policy.

The schools’ policy states while ‘objective discussion of homosexuality may take place in the classroom,’ ‘the governing body will not permit the promotion of homosexuality’.'

[afleitch]

Yey. Scotland finally publishes the first wave of usable census data

[afleitch]

The 'Ed is crap' story of the last few weeks years is gaining further traction with Alastair Darling being the newest name on the list of critics.

Fixed.