Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[afleitch]

Worth pointing out going into these debates that in the 'preferred First Minister' question, recent polls have had Gray well behind Salmond and at times, behind Goldie.

Will be interesting to see if this changes.

[afleitch]

Very interesting so far, more audience participation and for a Glasgow audience, suprisingly hostile to Labour.

[afleitch]

Apparent YouGov

SNP 40
Labour 39
Tory 11
Lib Dem 5

Nothing yet on the regionals.

[afleitch]

Extraordinary news; there appear to be several constituencies where the LibDems have failed to find a candidate.

Namely....?

Clydesdale appears to have been confirmed. There are rumours about others, but I've not checked.

That was a bit of a shocker as I know of a few Lib Dems who could have stood there. With the Lib Dems out, and their vote share last time round higher than the Labour majority this one will be intesting to watch

The Greens are not standing in Glasgow Kelvin; very good for the 'not Labour' vote, but not necessarily good for the SNP. However this seat is subject to so much 'churn' you'd be lucky to find more than a 3rd of voters who were resident in the seat last time round.

Strathkelvin and Bearsden is also back to a 4 party race. It will be interesting to see where the rump of Jean Turner's vote goes. I'm going to check the cross-tabulations for the regional vote back in 2007 to try and get a feel.

The same with Cunninghame North; this will be a definite boost to the SNP.

[afleitch]

Jean Turner (IND) polled 6742 votes in Strathkelvin and Bearsden.

On the list vote:

1412 voted Labour
1355 voted SNP
1013 voted Conservative
727 voted Liberal Democrat

Campbell Martin (IND) polled 4423 votes in Cunninghame North

On the list vote:

1136 voted SNP
652 voted Labour
540 voted Conservative
399 voted Liberal Democrat

Martin Bartos (GRN) polled 2971 votes in Glasgow Kelvin

On the list vote:

1687 voted Green
360 voted SNP
292 voted for the SSP/Solidarity
229 voted Liberal Democrat
208 voted Labour
36 voted Conservative

Fraser Grieve (LIBDEM) polled 2951 votes in Clydesdale

On the list vote:

1716 voted Liberal Democrat
175 voted SNP
174 voted Labour
118 voted Conservative

[afleitch]

ScotPulse post debate survey results. 991 weighted respondents.

[afleitch]

Gray announces for the second time at the Scotsman 'high heid yin' debate he would have raised council tax had he won in 2007.

[afleitch]

New poll in The Sunday Times

SNP 37/37
Lab 37/32
Con 13/11
Lib 8/7
Grn -/5

While I don't have the details for the smaller parties, the Times calculates that the SNP would remain the largest party.

[afleitch]

The 'Scottish' Sun has been bahving somewhat curiously. Not only as it devoted it's front page to the election for three days so far, it also seems to be bigging up Salmond each time.

Which makes a change from this;



For the Daily Record, the fact that no national paper backs the SNP leading to bizarre 'they made me say it sir' style endorsements of Labour in 2007 doesn't appear to have any effect on voting intention.

[afleitch]

Go SNP

Indeed. They have done a very good job during the past four years given that they governed as a minority and during a recession. When it comes to some parts of their agenda they have implemented more 'Labour' policies than Labour managed to.

[afleitch]

Well Labour launched their manifesto promising the moon on a stick.

They hope to abolish youth unemployment by 2015, fight the forces of biology by ''eliminating' super-bugs in hospitals, create a quarter of a million new jobs and end fuel poverty.

Basically promising to do what they've always promised to do and have never done because it's impossible to do so

[afleitch]

Go SNP

Indeed. They have done a very good job during the past four years given that they governed as a minority and during a recession. When it comes to some parts of their agenda they have implemented more 'Labour' policies than Labour managed to.

Is the SNP right wing?

Very tough one to explain. On economics, the SNP could be considered 'statist'; they support low business tax, low rates, low council tax etc but believe in 'public works' through investment in capital projects.

[afleitch]

I don't think either party are all that left-leaning in reality - as demonstrated by a Tory sporting a SNP logo in his sig, and Scottish Labour don't seem a million miles away from their English counterpart (ie nowhere near left-wing). Also, whilst Scotland is probably the most left-leaning area in the UK, I think it's more a case of the Tories making themselves unelectable in areas which suffered the most since they adopted Thatcherism, than a massive swing to the left.

What form of Conservatism would be appealing in Scotland?

Very tough question. There is a very powerful 'Not Labour' vote in Scotland; it just goes to 3 (or even more) smaller parties. Lib Dems in Scotland have always been more 'Liberal' than 'SDP' in their organisation; polls for both Westminster and Holyrood see a sizable number of Lib Dem voters switching to the SNP (in some polls, more than to Labour).

The SNP is attractive enough to the (Protestant) working class, middle class and former Tory voters (not so much to the AB's who still back Labour contributing to their success in Eastwood and Strathkelvin) It is also a very rural party, to such an extent that it's support covers areas that the Conservatives used to win in County Constituencies, but not Burgh Constituencies (Ayr, Pentlands etc)

However the SNP is evolving as the 'Not Labour' party in other ways. It was non existant in Edinburgh. It had one councillor under FPTP, then in 2007 it won Edinburgh East at Holyrood and now it's strong enough to run the City Council. On the new boundaries, Labour hold only 1 of the 6 Edinburgh seats. The SNP dominate in Dundee (where they have a history) and are making huge strides in Aberdeen.

Scottish politics will not be about left v right...but it is heading towards a stable 'two and two half party system'

[afleitch]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-12999916

Iain Gray leaves after being chased by a handful of protestors.

Also, I think it's gone from the new copies, but the original manifesto yesterday had "Scottish Labour will abolish the failed Scottish Labour"

[afleitch]

TIP:

Might be worth backing the SNP in Fife North East

[afleitch]

Wait up, I always thought the SNP was somewhere between Socialist and Communist.

They didn't have the nickname 'Tartan Tories' for nothing

[afleitch]

Rumours...rumours...rumours

SNP now actively targeting Fife North East and Aberdeenshire West. The Lib Dem vote appears to be drifting more to the SNP than to Labour.

[afleitch]

They sit with the radicals in europe, and two people I knew from Scotland, one Tory one Radical-Leftist, either supported or opposed the SNP on the grounds that they were, as the radical put it, "Between Socialists and Communists"

I must apologise for their ignorance on behalf of the nation

[afleitch]

They sit with the radicals in europe, and two people I knew from Scotland, one Tory one Radical-Leftist, either supported or opposed the SNP on the grounds that they were, as the radical put it, "Between Socialists and Communists"

I must apologise for their ignorance on behalf of the nation

Which nation?

Scotland? United Kingdom?
Does the word "nation" is used to describe Scotland?

Yes; Legally and 'constitutionally' within the framework of the UK, Scotland is officially still a nation; the Kingdom of Scotland.

[afleitch]

First predictions for Lib Dem held seats.

Lib Dem held seats

Shetland - Tavish Scott's seat. Easy hold.

Orkney - Lib Dems won here with a split opposition but polled less than 50% of the vote. Still a 2,476 majority in a seat of less than 9,000 voters is not to be sniffed at. I expect the SNP to poll really well here, but Lib Dems to hold on.

Caithness, Sutherland and Ross - I had the Lib Dems down to hold this one until the Wick by-election. I now think that the SNP will take this seat. Labour should poll well here too, but as the seat is much larger than it's predecessor it will be a diluted result for them.

Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch - SNP gain. Big swing.

Aberdeenshire West - Very tough one to call. Can't quite see where the SNP can find the support they need to overhaul the Lib Dems here other than having Lib Dems switch. IIRC, the notional vote here based on polling district results is more heavily Lib Dem. A sizeable Tory vote (about 25%) remains in this seat which will probably determine the winner. Lib Dem hold, but it seems to be moving in the SNP's favour.

Aberdeen South and North Kincardine - Lib Dems in real trouble here. The independent candidate is going to hurt them too (and I think that may be the point; she was elected as a councillor against the Lib Dem and Nicol Stephen backed by-pass). It may even be a tight contest between Labour and the Lib Dems for second place. SNP gain.

Fife North East - I'm putting this down as a Lib Dem hold, but the picture there is not clear. The pivot for this seat is of course St Andrew's (with it's sizeable English student population) but the Lib Dems are also strong elsewhere in the seat, especially along the coast. While the Conservatives sit at second, they are not well placed to improve on their 2007 showing. The SNP are increasingly confident that they can win here or at least push for close second. Salmond has dropped by unexpectedly; he did that in 2007 in Stirling wheere the SNP won from 3rd place.

Dunfermline - Labour gain, but not as overwhelming as people may think.

Edinburgh Western - Tories think the sitting Lib Dem MSP, Mary Smith is safe here. I would tend to agree; the SNP would have to win support from some of the most prosperous suburbs in Scotland, where the Tories still have a sizeable presence.

Edinburgh Central - This should, on paper be an easy Labour gain. It has to be remembered that Edinburgh Central despite being contested by Sarah Boyack (who also tops the list...somewhat unusual for Labour to allow this) no longer holds any 'rock solid Labour' areas; they have been removed from the seat meaning that Labour's support is evenly spread. Tory voting areas, especially the New Town have been brought into the seat. Alex Cole-Hamilton, the Lib Dem claimed in an interview with the Scotsman to be doing well in persuading Tory voters to vote tactically. Still, it is Sarah Boyack so I predict a Labour gain.

Edinburgh Southern - Probably the most difficult to predict seat in Scotland. Technically, all four parties have a chance here. Realistically, as the most 'non Scottish' seat demographically in Scotland, the SNP are frozen out and will likely finish 3rd or 4th. Labour appear to be the natural challengers here, however the seat now takes in Morningside and areas of McLetchie's heartland. Mike Pringle, the sitting Lib Dem MSP needs these voters to 'lend' their vote to him, as many Tory voters have done in other parts of the seat. The east of the contains the student hub; they won't be friendly. I cannot call this one, but I think that Pringle may, just may hang on.

[afleitch]

Just noticed, with the unemployment figures released today, that Labour pledge to create more jobs than there are unemployed.

[afleitch]

Just noticed, with the unemployment figures released today, that Labour pledge to create more jobs than there are unemployed.

Not everyone out of work is looking for work etc. Besides, whether possible or not it's a good old fashioned Labour campaign issue.

Alongside wanting wanting to end an apprenticeship scheme involving 50,000 who are guaranteed a job for one that involves 120,000 but has no guarantee of a job?

[afleitch]

http://www.scottishvotecompass.org/

My Results: Con 28% SNP 21% LIB 14% LAB 0% GRN -4%

[afleitch]

A few people I know who have filled it in trying to get as 'Labour' a score as possible are quite bemused when the Greens and the SNP and sometimes the Lib Dems score higher

[afleitch]

GRN 56, SNP 49, LD 16, LAB -3, CON -56

Wow. Even I didn't get a negative score for Labour.