Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[afleitch]

Ah; details details

This poll weighed by 'party ID' (not the same as voting intention; the figures appear to be Labour 38, SNP 16) and er...newspaper readership. It did not weigh by likelyhood to vote.

[afleitch]

Thought I'd stick this somewhere. This is the total party vote per ward for the 2007 council elections. I just like pretty colours.

[afleitch]

are the colours related to vote share or number of seats?

They are related to % lead over the second party in vote share. I should have included a key :/ Other maps relating to number of seats held have been put on this site somewhere else. I'll see if I can find a link!

[afleitch]

Aww. What a cute little poll Did you make it yourself TNS? Oh wait you did.

[afleitch]

How likely are the Tories to pick up seats?

Notional results for the new seats have them on 18 or 19 seats; already an improvement before a vote has been cast. Opinion polls understimate the Tories (in I think all but a few polls conducted before and during the last 3 campaigns); if their voters are motivated they may make an improvement. Their target is 20 seats, but then again it has been for a while.

Question is: Labour will get a majority government in coalition with greens or will have to go to a minority government...Now, LibDems in Scotland are more isolated in cordon sanitaire than BNP and Tommy Sheridan...

Trust me, if any party need the Lib Dems to govern they will ask them! Both Annabel Goldie the Tory leader and Tavish Scott the Lib Dem leader have said they won't allow 2007 to happen again; i.e a single party minority government relying on abstentions. Given that neither the SNP or Labour will get a majority and with the smaller parties unwilling to abstain (during the election of an FM for example) a deal with have to be struck; the Lib Dems will be the attractive option even now. However if Labour have the edge over the SNP but can't strike a deal, the possibility of an SNP-Tory coalition is suprising strong (a few privately have admitted they should have made this happen in 2007)

The SNP are likely to 'give up' on independence at least formally (though they are waiting for Nicola Sturgeon to become leader to do it officially; she has never been one to talk up independence to as fantastical levels as Alex Salmond) in exchange for 'Devolution Max' which the Tories in Scotland and the Coalition would be favourable to.

It's worth noting that the main parties have backed the extension of the next term to 2016 (5 years) in order not to clash with the Westminster Election. So this is a big election.

[afleitch]

Extension of the term? Is that dried & dusted?

Not legislatively; there has to be an amendment to the Scotland Act which co-incidently is up for discussion anyway.

The problem is that a 2016 election would clash with the Council elections which have already been brought forward from 2011 to 2012 (and then every 4 years after) in order not to clash with the 2011 Holyrood elections. So they might have to be put forward again.

[afleitch]

For the life of me, I don't understand why the Tories don't want to at least privately encourage Scottish independence, since that would give them very nearly a permanent majority

Probably one of the sillier myths about British politics and also one of the most popular.

Essentially if the Conservatives in Scotland ceased to be unionist, then it would have no impact on the parties fortunes anywhere but in Scotland. Moving away from unionism would kill the party in Scotland.

The Scottish Tories still have to deal with a small but significant fringe who simply don't vote at Holyrood at all and have spent the past 3 elections trying to legitimise the Parliament (and opposing the settlement in 1997 didn't help) The Tories have managed to make progress, particularly in 2007.

There are also those who vote may consider voting Tory at Holyrood, but don't believe that they take Holyrood seriously so there is a fine balancing act. On that note there seems to be more of the latter infact, given past results in West Renfrewshire, Cunninghame North and Stirling.

Abandoning unionism would see unionist voters stay at home and drive other Tory voters into the hands of the other parties.

There is never a 'win' situation for the Tories in Scotland. Plain and simple

[afleitch]

The 'Scottish Opinion' Poll
 
Constituency

Lab 43%, SNP 37%, Con 11%, LD 5%

Regional

Lab 44%, SNP 37%, Con 11%, LD 4%

---

I have no idea who that outfit are (BPIX spin off?)

[afleitch]

I should try my hand at making up a poll. So long as the figures look vaguely plausible (mind you, Labour and the SNP taking 80% between them?), who'd know?

I will

Based on general feeling and various other things (including some doorstep stuff i've done) I'd say.

            C    L
Labour 35 - 33
SNP     33 - 32
Tory    16 - 15
Lib       12 - 10
Oth       4 -  10 = of which - Green 4, Trots/Swingers 2

Give me 5 grand The Scotsman and they are all yours.

[afleitch]

I should try my hand at making up a poll. So long as the figures look vaguely plausible (mind you, Labour and the SNP taking 80% between them?), who'd know?

I will

Based on general feeling and various other things (including some doorstep stuff i've done) I'd say.

            C    L
Labour 35 - 33
SNP     33 - 32
Tory    16 - 15
Lib       12 - 10
Oth       4 -  10 = of which - Green 4, Trots/Swingers 2

Give me 5 grand The Scotsman and they are all yours.

Is someone being a tad bit optimistic about the National Government's performance?

No.

The Lib Dems may fall short of 12% share (which would be only around 75% of the vote they polled in 2007), however the Tories are currently polling above what opinion polls in the past 3 elections (when conditions were better for them...) predicted, which leads me to predict their vote share will remain steady. It may even increase.

[afleitch]

Might there not have been some degree of on-the-day anti-Government voting benefitting the Tories in the past few elections? (honest question)

The Scottish Tories are no longer in a position to be able to benefit much from that. What they ought to be concerned about is something a little different; changed turnout patterns (as in partisan, not geographical) now that Labour are in opposition in Westminster. Though that's more a threat to their position out here than up there.

True. Though I think the seats the Tories hold (including or excluding the notional gain in Eastwood; I haven't made up my mind on that one) are safe enough that they should return their Tory MSP. Of course they are now perhaps over-reliant on 'names'; which is why McLetchie is still an MSP and why they aren't so keen to let him stand down. I think this strategy is going to do some long term damage to the party but that's another issue.

I feel, and this is felt a little on the ground, that the Tory vote in Scotland as stripped back as it is (and only varying by the odd percentage point over the past 14 years) is not de-motivated by the Tories either in Westminster or in Holyrood and we should perform well. It's certainly not in the mood to vote tactically to oust the SNP or passively put Labour in power.

The SNP are probably stronger amongst the Managerial/Professional economic class than they were in 2007. This is the Tories main danger. If the SNP pile on votes in Eastwood it might mean Labour may just have it's head above the water enough to take the seat on a split vote. That's why I found the council result in East Kilbride West a few months back, interesting (the ward is the top 5% managerial/professional wards in Scotland) as it seemed to allay my fears somewhat.

[afleitch]

ICM Poll

Labour             39  37
SNP                 35  34
Conservative     12  13
Lib Dem            10   9
Green                     4

[afleitch]

YouGov also pulled some numbers out of it's ass today

Labour             41  39
SNP                 38  32
Conservative     10  11
Lib Dem             6    6
Green                     5
SSP                       4 (lol)

[afleitch]

And running this through the seat calculator

        ICM   YOUGOV
LAB    57      61
SNP    45      47
CON   15      12
LIB     10       5
GRE     2        3
IND     0        1

[afleitch]

On the Yougov numbers Lab-Green seems like a definite possibility.

The strength of the SNP (outpolling its 2007 vote regardless of what is happening with Labour) is likely to make it harder for the Greens to pick up seats mathematically. If Labour and the SNP chase each other in the high 30's it may even, depending on how the cake is cut, wipe out the Greens.

[afleitch]

Would Scottish Labour like working with the Greens anyway? Scotland isn't London, after all.

Events dear boy...

Scottish Labour support nuclear power and replacement plants. The Greens do not and neither do the SNP. Same goes for Faslane. These are big sticking points and may be more so given recent developments.

[afleitch]

And off we go!

Labour today have piled into Edinburgh East, Dunfermline, Falkirk West and Almond Valley. The Lib Dems have focused on Edinburgh Central. Nothing too over-reaching on the first day. Meanwhile Bella has christened herself the 'Old Nag.' Looks like this might be fun

[afleitch]

Would Scottish Labour like working with the Greens anyway? Scotland isn't London, after all.

Events dear boy...

Scottish Labour support nuclear power and replacement plants. The Greens do not and neither do the SNP. Same goes for Faslane. These are big sticking points and may be more so given recent developments.

Isn't their also the issue of Labour's Catholic base perhaps not being less than entirely keen about the Green Party's education policy?

Catholic schools will always remain a wedge issue in Lanarkshire in particular, but ultimately I would not see it as a barrier to a coalition; it wasn't an issue I encountered on the doorsteps in 2007 (and that was despite being unflatteringly tagged as 'private Catholic educated' in the local paper and effectively briefed on the party response to questions after it was published ) It's the sort of thing whipped up on a Sunday 'bishops letter' during an election that's forgotten about after tea in the chapel hall.

Speaking of the Greens, now am in the Glasgow Region I'm torn on who to cast my list vote for; I'm no longer in Margaret Mitchell's region and while I'd have preferred Ruth Davidson as the Tory #1 (shes #2), I want to return Patrick Harvie As I'm voting SNP in the consituency (safe that they will get a handful of MSP's on the list), this could be the first election I've not voted Tory in.

[afleitch]

Speaking of the Greens, now am in the Glasgow Region I'm torn on who to cast my list vote for; I'm no longer in Margaret Mitchell's region and while I'd have preferred Ruth Davidson as the Tory #1 (shes #2), I want to return Patrick Harvie As I'm voting SNP in the consituency (safe that they will get a handful of MSP's on the list), this could be the first election I've not voted Tory in.

Number 1 on the Tory list for the Glasgow list has stood down. Crisis averted

[afleitch]

The LibDem's number one on the Central Scotland list has quit the party and is to run as an independent.

Yes, interesting one that. The issue for Hugh O'Donnell of course is that as a Lib Dem there was a strong possibly he wouldn't have got elected in Central Scotland. As an independent he has even less chance. Nothing to gain, so nothing to loose.

[afleitch]

New poll; was on STV earlier - not sure who it was by

Labour  38/35
SNP      37/35
Tory     15/14
Lib Dem  7/8
Green     -/5

[afleitch]

It was by The New Saints, so is best ignored.

Is it? Ah well; flush it away

[afleitch]

As long as the SNP remain strong, relative to their 2007 performance, it will be very difficult due to the maths with the D'Hondt system for the parties outside of the main four to make any seats. It is unlikely that the Greens will make much advance on their current 2 seats. It is increasingly likely that there won't be the Green presence Labour need to get a majority.

It is important to note that both the Lib Dems and the Tories have said that the arrangement that existed from 2007-11 allowing a minority government (and quite the minority at that) to hold power will not be tolerated. So a minority government is not on the cards.

Labour have not had a good relationship with the other parties at Holyrood. The Parliament structure, it's comittee's and it's compactness promotes close association. Labour will sit at committee and oppose, the Tories and the Lib Dems will negotiate and the pattern repeats itself. The last Budget, in which every party (bar the Greens) got concessions was a good example of this level of co-operation. But Labour voted it down, despite getting what they wanted.

Remember, that the shock of 2007 was that the Liberal Democrats were not willing to go into any coalition with Labour. They were burnt out. They will be even more burnt out this time. An informal 'supply' deal with the Tories could be tempting. It would allow both parties to be safe face publically. But if the gap between Labour and the SNP is close, you can bet that the SNP will try and get in there first.

----

Also. First of the Leader's Debates tonight

[afleitch]

BBC1 Scotland?

STV i'm afraid :/

[afleitch]

is Patrick Harvie on it, and can you watch online daan saaf?

http://news.stv.tv/election-2011/debates/239543-watch-the-scottish-leadersdebate-live-online-and-join-the-discussion/

Just the main four leaders Starts at 9