Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[afleitch]

[afleitch]

Met Iain Gray and Jim Murphy in Glasgow today. Very....interesting confrontation. I hope it's not on the telly.

[afleitch]

Was it filmed?

There were cameras. No idea if it was filmed. The walkabout lasted about 10 minutes and appeared to be cut short. There was some heckling but mostly the Labour group was ignored; sun was out and it was a holiday Monday afterall.

[afleitch]

My first proper prediction; may do another in the last week

SNP Gains (based on Denver's notionals)

Caithness, Sutherland and Ross from LIB DEM
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch from LIB DEM
Aberdeenshire West from LIB DEM
Aberdeen South and Kincardine North from LIB DEM
Stirling from LAB
Linlithgow from LAB
Edinburgh Eastern from LAB
Midlothian North and Musselburgh from LAB
Dumbarton from LAB
Glasgow Southside from LAB
Clydesdale from LAB
Airdrie and Shotts from LAB

LAB Gains

Dunfermline from LIB DEM
Edinburgh Central from LIB DEM
Dumfriesshire from CON

[afleitch]

Apparently 1 in 6 votes cast at the election are likely to be postal votes.

That's Labour won then

[afleitch]

Bizarre thought: maybe the SNP will win Edinburgh Central (and etc), but fail in some more obvious targets?

It's entirely possible;

There are two sets of targets; active and passive. Active targets in 2007 were Linlithgow, Cumbernauld etc, whereas passive targets were Stirling and Cunninghame North. The SNP undoubtedly did better in areas where Labour were not on a long term defensive (Labour held their marginals very well) Of course that was when the SNP had a 1 point lead. A lead of more than that means that marginal defense becomes slightly obsolete.

The seats I would say are 'passive' targets are the likes of Edinburgh Central, Dumbarton, Glasgow Cathcart, Paisley (post Wendy fall-out) and, worth mentioning this one; Carrick Cumnock and Doon Valley where the local Labour branch are not exactly singing their own candidates praises. There are also possible SNP losses; Kilmarnock was on the radar early on in the campaign though at the moment national circumstances probably mitigate this.

EDIT: The above map probably demonstrates two things; Edinburgh East the passive target of 2007 and my belief that Kenny Mcaskill will be fine; he won nearly every district. What he takes into his seat probably would have voted for him in 2007.

[afleitch]

Saw George Galloway; his faux Arab accent seems to have deserted him.

[afleitch]

SNP still 10 points ahead according to latest poll. More details soon.

MacNews of The Screws to back the SNP, as is, suprisingly the Scotland on Sunday (the Scotsman;s sunday edition)

[afleitch]

Amusingly to see that the Murdoch press is now apparently in favor of a union break-up.

Given that in it's endorsment for the SNP, the Sun spoke out strongly against independence I doubt it

[afleitch]

SNP still 10 points ahead according to latest poll. More details soon.

Progressive Scottish Opinion... which were they? One of the dodgy firms, I think, but I can't remember which.

Constituency: SNP 45, Labour 35, Con 10, LDem 6
List: SNP 41, Labour 36, Con 8, Greens 6, LDem 5

I think several proper polls have shown this as well, but I can't see Labour doing better on list than constituency. Doesn't feel right.

YouGov is also out. Narrower lead for the SNP; 42 vs 35 in the constituency and 35 v 33 in the list.

[afleitch]

SNP still 10 points ahead according to latest poll. More details soon.

Progressive Scottish Opinion... which were they? One of the dodgy firms, I think, but I can't remember which.

Constituency: SNP 45, Labour 35, Con 10, LDem 6
List: SNP 41, Labour 36, Con 8, Greens 6, LDem 5

I think several proper polls have shown this as well, but I can't see Labour doing better on list than constituency. Doesn't feel right.

YouGov is also out. Narrower lead for the SNP; 42 vs 35 in the constituency and 35 v 33 in the list.

Much more believable numbers, I think.

On a uniform swing it would see Labour slayed in the constituencies so the list would help them. However if Labour hold on in the constituencies the SNP would get a boost in the list. Either way, SNP are still home and dry on these figures. I still tend to think about 5 to 8 seats will seperate them.

[afleitch]

From an article in the Grauniad...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My partisan head would scold Labour for such rubbish, but my non partisan head would scold the Grauniad. Of course, the Lib Dems notionally hold no seats in 'the Borders' out of a whopping 2 to choose from.

I also think the media have been paying too much attention to 'ScotlandVotes'; the polls (even the not so good one from YouGov) have the SNP making huge gains in the constituencies which won't happen. Betting markets have the SNP gaining 8 and Labour gaining 4 for example.

If Labour can mitigate losses, then a larger lead for the SNP than in 2007 will allow the SNP to sweep the board in the top up seats while Labour will fail to pick up regional seats except in rural Scotland. If the Lib Dems keep their head above the water and more importantly, above the Greens then the maths will be hard on the 5th party.

The best the SNP can hope for is a 5+ seat lead over Labour. Even less than that would do.

Will be interesting to see where the party leaders will be visiting in the final two days.

[afleitch]

Follow the leaders...

Alex Salmond in in Dundee, Tavish Scott is in Edinburgh, Annabel Goldie in Eastwood and Iain Gray in Airdie and Shotts

[afleitch]

TNS-BRMB Poll

SNP 45/38
LAB 27/25
CON 15/16
LIB 10/9
GRN -/8

[afleitch]

So, is there a list of the times when the seats are expected to declare?

Not sure; Hamilton is expected to declare first or possibly Paisley.

[afleitch]

The Scotsman, the most traditionally unionist of the newspapers in Scotland has came out in favour of the SNP

[afleitch]

Alex Salmond is visiting Shettleston today to help SNP candidate John Mason.

Make of that what you will...

[afleitch]

Worth noting that after the election, regardless of the result the Parliament will have to meet to elect a Presiding Officer. It's Labour's turn to nominate (after Steel, Reid and Fergusson) Hugh Henry appears to be the favourite.

[afleitch]

Turnout in my part of Blantyre appeared to be pretty good when I voted after 6.

[afleitch]

Does anyone know where i can watch this online. My cable company does not have BBC

STV are streaming live 'across the world' apparently

http://news.stv.tv/election-2011/live/

[afleitch]

Does anyone know where i can watch this online. My cable company does not have BBC

STV are streaming live 'across the world' apparently

http://news.stv.tv/election-2011/live/

I want to watch BBC's/ But I will watch if I have too

I've heard you may be able to get it on BBC Scotland's website.